Should You Buy, Sell or Hold Boeing Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release?

The Boeing Company BA is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 27, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at a loss of 39 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pinned at $21.74 billion, indicating growth of 42.6% from the year-ago reported figure.

BA’s Earnings Surprise History

The company beat on earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, delivering an average negative surprise of 22.4%.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Boeing this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is +16.73%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Currently, Boeing carries a Zacks Rank #3. 

You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks Worth a Look

Some other stocks in the same industry that have the combination of factors indicating an earnings beat are GE Aerospace GE and Northrop Grumman NOC. CW and HWM have an Earnings ESP of +1.98% and +0.54%, respectively. Both stocks carry a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Factors That Might Have Impacted BA’s Q4 Performance

During the fourth quarter of 2025, Boeing completed the acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems. This must have helped the company by improving production stability and supply-chain management. Additionally, this likely lessened delivery and quality issues and increased aircraft production and profitability. The deal must have improved Boeing’s aftermarket services presence and brought in its largest spare parts supplier, boosting parts and maintenance revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.

Rising international air travel has increased aircraft utilization, driving higher demand for commercial jet maintenance, repairs, and related services, which likely supported sales volumes for Boeing’s commercial services. At the same time, growing defense needs have boosted government spending on aftermarket aircraft repair, support, and upgrades, lifting demand for government jet services. Together, stronger commercial services revenues and the typically higher margins associated with government services are expected to have improved the top-line performance and operating earnings of 
Boeing Global Services in the fourth quarter.

In the fourth quarter, Boeing’s commercial aircraft deliveries grew 180.7% year over year, reflecting continued recovery in production and delivery momentum. On the defense side, shipments increased 2.8% from the prior-year period. Such improved deliveries can be projected to have bolstered both top and bottom-line performances of Boeing’s commercial and defense business segments in the fourth quarter.

However, Boeing continues to face supply-chain pressures stemming from tariffs and export controls, while some key suppliers are dealing with financial stress. Together, these challenges likely constrained production efficiency and adversely impacted the company’s operational performance, financial health and cash flow during the quarter.

BA Stock Price Performance

In the past three months, the stock has returned 15% compared with the industry’s growth of 7.8%.

BA Stock Trading at a Discount

Boeing is currently trading at a discount compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/S basis.
 

GE Aerospace is trading at a premium compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/S basis. Northrop Grumman is trading at a discount compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/S basis.

BA Stock’s Poor ROIC

The image below shows that BA stock’s trailing 12-month return on invested capital (ROIC) not only lags the peer group’s average return but also reflects a negative figure. This suggests that the company's investments are not yielding sufficient returns to cover its expenses.

Investment Thesis

The steadily rising demand for commercial air travel and the replacement of aging fleets are driving the need for new jets and aftermarket services. These factors are important growth drivers for Boeing, one of the largest commercial aircraft manufacturers in America.

Although the commercial aerospace market has been benefiting from steady growth in air travel in recent times, persistent supply-chain issues, particularly arising from a shortage of aircraft parts, continue to affect the global aviation industry. 

Additionally, jet makers may face difficulties in sourcing sufficient quantities of steel and aluminum domestically, at least in the near term. Beyond higher manufacturing costs, reduced availability of these metals could further delay completion of Boeing's major aircraft program, creating uncertain challenges for this jet giant in maintaining its delivery schedules.

End Note

Boeing is expected to continue to benefit from steadily rising international air travel and solid commercial and defense deliveries. However, consistent supply-chain issues are expected to have offset some of the positives during the fourth quarter. 

Current investors may stay invested and enjoy the improvement in earnings. However, new investors may wait and look for a better entry point, considering the stock’s poor ROIC and consistent supply-chain issues. 

 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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