Gold, Bitcoin Or The S&P500? Which Asset Polymarket Predicts To Do Best In 2026

Between gold, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, Polymarket traders give gold a 47% chance of being the best performing asset in 2026, compared to 39% for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and 14% for the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY)

Gold Up 12.6%, Bitcoin Flat Year-To-Date

Gold, as measured by (NYSE:GLD), is up 12.6% year-to-date, jumping from $4,321 per ounce on January 1 to $4,840 on Wednesday after touching $4,887 earlier in the session.

Bitcoin is up just 0.3% over the same period.

Gold surged on geopolitical uncertainty and tariff threats that weakened the dollar and pushed investors toward safe-haven assets.

President Trump’s Greenland demands and tariff rhetoric have triggered a “Sell America” trade that hit US stocks and bonds. 

As a result gold benefited while Bitcoin dropped alongside riskier tech stocks.

Bitcoin fell 3% after Trump’s Davos speech and has dropped over 10% in the past seven days. The digital asset is trading like a risk asset, not a safe haven.

Bitcoin Trapped Between Key Technical Levels

Bitcoin price is down around 6% on the week, after failing to reclaim the $97,121 50-day EMA.

The 20-day EMA sits at $96,957, with the 100-day at $86,222 and the 200-day at $68,219.

Price is stuck between the 100-day support and resistance at the 20/50-day EMAs.

The SAR indicator at $80,873 shows bullish structure remains intact, but momentum has stalled. 

Bitcoin needs to reclaim $97,000 to shift sentiment, otherwise support at $86,000-$80,000 comes into play.

A breakdown below $80,000 exposes Bitcoin to a flush toward $75,000, where traders see worst-case support. Resistance remains heavy at the $97,000-$100,000 zone.

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