Intel Earnings Are Approaching And Markets Are Already Betting On What The Management Will Say And Won't Say

With Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) set to report fourth-quarter results after market close Thursday, prediction markets are signaling not just what investors expect from the numbers, but which topics management is most — and least — likely to address on the earnings call.

Prediction Markets Signal Key Talking Points

On Kalshi, a regulated prediction market, traders are placing bets on whether specific words will be mentioned during Intel's upcoming earnings call, including the Q&A.

The market currently assigns a higher-than-even probability that Intel executives will reference tariffs, reflecting expectations that macroeconomic and trade-related pressures will feature in the discussion.

Mentions of Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Intel's own product lines, including Xeon and Panther Lake, are seen as near certainties.

Intel shares surged in 2025, buoyed by multiple catalysts, including equity stakes taken by Nvidia and the U.S. government.

What Intel May Avoid Saying

Prediction markets suggest a lower likelihood that Intel will explicitly mention Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) or President Donald Trump during the call.

Traders appear to expect management to steer clear of naming specific customers or political figures, even as broader issues such as geopolitics, U.S. industrial policy and supply chain risk remain top of mind.

The absence of these names could be as telling as their inclusion, signaling how carefully Intel plans to frame its narrative amid an election year and continued shifts in the semiconductor landscape.

Earnings Expectations Set The Backdrop

Intel is scheduled to report fourth-quarter revenue after the bell on Thursday.

Analysts expect the company to post revenue of $13.39 billion, down from $14.26 billion a year earlier, according to Benzinga Pro.

Intel's own guidance calls for revenue between $12.8 billion and $13.8 billion.

Earnings per share are expected to come in at 4 cents, compared with 13 cents in the prior-year period, though Intel has guided for EPS of 8 cents.

The company has beaten revenue estimates in five consecutive quarters and topped earnings expectations in seven of the past 10.

Price Action: Intel shares are up 1.20% in after-hours trading, according to Benzinga Pro.

Intel stock scores medium on Value in Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings, with a favorable price trend in the short, medium and long terms.

Photo: Tada Images / Shutterstock

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.