Will JPMorgan Be Able to Reach Its NII Target of $103B in 2026?

JPMorgan JPM expects net interest income (NII) to reach about $103 billion in 2026, even as it builds against a lower-rate backdrop. The bank calls the outlook “market dependent” and bases it on the rate curve implied as of Jan. 8, 2026. In 2025, NII was $95.9 billion.
    
A part of the lift is likely to come from Markets NII. JPMorgan pegs 2026 NII, excluding Markets, at roughly $95 billion, implying Markets NII of around $8 billion, an area that can be more variable than the core lending-and-deposit engine.

The NII guidance assumes two Federal Reserve rate cuts, ending the year with a fed funds target upper bound near 3.25%. It also anticipates interest on reserve balance (IORB) falling about 92 basis points year over year and deposit margin compression as headwinds. To counter that, JPM points to modest improvement in Consumer and Wholesale deposit balances. Further, higher-yielding revolving card balances are expected to help cushion NII as benchmark rates drift lower, particularly if funding costs stay contained. 

During the conference call with analysts, JPM’s Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum, noted, "Consumers and small businesses remain resilient." He further added that the bank was not seeing deterioration across income groups. In 2025, the company saw a solid increase in loan demand, with major growth coming from Wholesale loans (up 17% year over year), followed by credit card loans (up 6%). 

On Jan. 7, JPMorgan signed an agreement to become the new issuer of the Apple Card, which has approximately $20 billion in receivables. While the deal will strengthen the bank’s position in the credit card operation, the phased transition (expected to be over in two years and subject to regulatory approvals) is less likely to have any significant impact on the company’s NII this year.

One major factor that could influence this year’s NII is the proposed cap on the credit card interest rates at 10%. Although nothing has been finalized, JPMorgan’s NII could be pressured by compressing yields on high-margin revolving balances, a major growth driver in its NII outlook. Barnum said, "If it were to happen, it would be very bad for consumers, very bad for the economy.” The bank could respond by tightening credit and limiting balance growth, which would further weigh on NII. 

Additionally, with Markets expected to contribute meaningfully to support NII, the path will hinge on rates, deposit competition and trading-related balance sheet dynamics.

What Do JPM’s Peers Say About Their 2026 NII Expectations?

The two closest peers of JPMorgan are Bank of America BAC and Citigroup C.

Bank of America expects 2026 NII to rise 5-7% year over year, following 7.2% growth in 2025. Bank of America continues to benefit from a supportive rate backdrop, productivity gains from technology investments and the earnings resilience of a diversified franchise. 

Citigroup is guiding for 5-6% NII growth in 2026, after delivering 11% year-over-year growth in 2025. Citigroup’s outlook is underpinned by a steadier rate environment and constructive balance sheet trends.

JPMorgan’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

JPMorgan shares have gained 1.8% over the past six months.

From a valuation standpoint, JPM trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 2.98X, below the industry average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPMorgan’s 2026 earnings calls for a 4.5% rise on a year-over-year basis, while 2027 earnings are expected to grow at a rate of 9.1%. In the past seven days, earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have moved upward.

JPM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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