Will Trading Volume Aid CME Group to Deliver Q1 Earnings Beat?

CME Group CME is expected to register an improvement in its top line and bottom line when it reports first-quarter 2025 results on April 23, before the opening bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CME’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.6 billion, indicating 9.6% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.76 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CME’s first-quarter earnings has moved up 5.7% in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 10.4%. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

What the Zacks Model Unveils for CME

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CME this time around. This is because it has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) that increases the chances of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: CME has an Earnings ESP of +1.82%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.81 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.76.

CME Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

CME Group Inc. price-eps-surprise | CME Group Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank: CME sports a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Shape Q1 Results

CME Group’s first-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from a diverse product portfolio, increased volatility and a strong market position.

Revenues are likely to have benefited from an increase in market data and information services, clearing, transaction fees and other revenues.

Higher trading volumes across asset classes are likely to have driven clearing and transaction fees. We expect clearing and transaction fees to be $1.2 billion, indicating a 2.9% increase from the year-ago reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter clearing and transaction fees is pegged at $1.3 billion, indicating a rise of 28.8% from the year-ago reported figure.

CME reported a record quarterly average daily volume of 29.8 million contracts in the first quarter, up 13% year over year. This was driven by record quarterly growth in various asset classes, with record volume in Interest Rate, Equity Index, Agricultural, Foreign Exchange and Cryptocurrency products. International ADV reached a record 8.8 million contracts, up 19% year on year.

Market data and information services revenues are likely to have gained from price increases for certain products, a rise in device counts, higher custody fees as well as improvements in co-location and other connectivity fees. We expect the figure to be $188.6 million, indicating a 7.5% increase from the year-ago reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter market data and information services revenues is pegged at $187 million, indicating an increase of 6.9% from the year-ago reported figure.

Expenses are likely to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter due to higher compensation and benefits and technology expenses. We anticipate expenses to be $492 million in the to-be-reported quarter, indicating a 6.5% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are three finance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Nasdaq NDAQ has an Earnings ESP of +1.32% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at 77 cents, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 22.2%

NDAQ’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.

Intercontinental Exchange ICE has an Earnings ESP of +0.88% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.70, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 14.9%.

ICE’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four reported quarters while meeting the same in the other two.

Cboe Global Markets CBOE has an Earnings ESP of +3.62% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 bottom line is pegged at $2.29, implying an increase of 6.5% from the year-ago reported figure.

CBOE’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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