Watch These 4 Transportation Stocks for Q4 Earnings: Beat or Miss?

The widely diversified Zacks Transportation sector continues to navigate through a challenging macroeconomic environment. The sector grapples with multiple headwinds, ranging from escalated expenses, inflation-induced elevated interest rates, a downturn in freight demand and supply-chain woes. Geopolitical uncertainties and tariff-induced economic tensions continue to hurt consumer sentiment and growth expectations.

With inflation remaining a concern, risks associated with an economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions dampen the prospects of stocks belonging to this sector. Sluggish economic growth and inflationary woes are likely to make markets more volatile in the coming days. Due to supply-chain troubles, costs will likely continue to be steep going forward.

On a brighter note, the southward movement of oil prices bodes well for the bottom-line growth of sector participants. This is because fuel expenses are a significant input cost for the transportation companies. Oil prices decreased 7% in the October-December 2025 period.

Given this backdrop, investors interested in the Zacks Transportation sector are keenly waiting for the results of Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), United Parcel Service (UPS), American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) and JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU) – all of which are slated to be released on Jan. 27, 2026.

Our quantitative model predicts an earnings beat for a company if it has a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). This combination increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Let’s delve deeper.

Union Pacific Corporation

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNP’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 1.7% in the past 60 days to $2.89 per share. However, the consensus mark implies a 0.7% decline compared with the year-ago actuals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNP’s fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $6.14 billion, indicating 0.3% growth year over year.

UNP’s efforts to cut costs to combat the revenue weakness (due to the freight market downturn) are expected to have aided the bottom-line performance in the quarter to be reported. Due to cost cuts and improved operational efficiency, we expect operating expenses to decline in the fourth quarter of 2025 from the year-ago actuals. On the contrary, geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures and persistent inflation are likely to have weighed on UNP’s operations and hurt the fourth-quarter results.

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for UNP, as Union Pacific has an Earnings ESP of -1.25% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

United Parcel Service

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share (EPS) and revenues is pegged at $2.23 and $24.01 billion, respectively. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 19.27%. The consensus mark for the to-be-reported quarter’s EPS has been revised upward by 5 cents over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies a year-over-year contraction of 5.1%.

We expect low costs to have aided the bottom-line performance of UPS in the December quarter. To combat weak revenues primarily due to low shipment volumes, apart from the tariff-related economic uncertainty, the company has been reconfiguring its U.S. network to boost efficiency. We forecast total operating revenues to decline 5.4% year over year in the December quarter, with consolidated volumes likely to dip 10.6%.

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for UPS for the fourth quarter, as it has an Earnings ESP of +0.74% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Earnings ESP was +0.58% when we issued our fourth-quarter 2025 earnings preview, and the Zacks Rank was the same.

American Airlines

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $14.07 billion, indicating 3.02% growth year over year. Management expects total revenues for the fourth quarter to increase in the 3-5% range from year-ago levels.We expect AAL's performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been boosted by an uptick in total revenues, driven by high passenger revenues, as domestic air-travel demand stabilizes.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 37.7% to 38 cents per share in the past 60 days. Moreover, the consensus mark implies a decline of 55.81% from the year-ago actual. The consensus estimate lies below the company's guided range of 45-75 cents per share. We expect escalated labor and airport costs, geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures, and persistent inflation to weigh on AAL’s operations.

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for American Airlines this time around, as AAL has an Earnings ESP of -1.21% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

JetBlue Airways

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JBLU’s fourth-quarter loss per share has widened in the past 60 days to 45 cents from 42 cents. The consensus mark implies a more than doubling of the loss from the year-ago actuals of a loss of 21 cents. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JBLU’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.22 billion, indicating 2.6% growth year over year.

JetBlue Airways' proactive efforts to expand its connectivity in response to increased demand are likely to have boosted its performance in the to-be-reported quarter.Lower oil prices are likely to have boded well for the bottom-line growth of airlines, including JBLU, since fuel expenses are a significant input cost for the aviation segment. On the contrary, geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures and persistent inflation are likely to have weighed on JBLU’s operations. These headwinds may have caused volatility in passenger traffic and, in turn, limited the airline’s ability to maintain strong yields and consistent revenue growth.

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for JetBlue this season, as it has an Earnings ESP of -5.89% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Earnings ESP was -04.11% when we issued our fourth-quarter 2025 earnings preview, and the Zacks Rank was the same.

JetBlue Airways Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

JetBlue Airways Corporation price-eps-surprise | JetBlue Airways Corporation Quote

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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