International Paper Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

International Paper Company IP is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan 29, 2026, before the opening bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IP’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $5.88 billion, indicating 28.4% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for International Paper’s earnings has moved down 20% in the past 60 days to 28 cents per share. The estimate indicates an increase from 2 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

IP’s Earnings Surprise History

International Paper’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on three occasions, the average surprise being negative 47.8%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for International Paper

Our model does not predict an earnings beat for IP this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here, as you can see below. 

IP’s Earnings ESP: International Paper has an Earnings ESP of -10.18%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank of International Paper: The company currently has a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell).

Factors Likely to Have Shaped IP’s Q4 Performance

On Jan. 31, 2025, International Paper completed the previously announced acquisition of DS Smith, forming a global leader in sustainable packaging solutions focused on the North America and EMEA markets. It recently completed the sale of its Global Cellulose Fibers business to American Industrial Partners. IP currently has two reporting segments: Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA.

Reflecting the impacts of the DS Smith acquisition, we expect the Packaging Solutions EMEA segment’s net sales to be $2.25 billion in the fourth quarter, indicating a significant increase from the $0.36 billion posted in the year-ago quarter. The segment’s operating loss is pegged at $16 million, per our model. The Packaging Solutions EMEA segment posted an operating profit of $19 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. Weaker-than-expected volumes due to lower industrial production are expected to get reflected in the upcoming results.

We expect Packaging Solutions North America’s net sales to increase 7.8% year over year to $3.81 billion, driven by the addition of the DS Smith North America business. The operating profit is anticipated to increase 55.8% year over year to $355 million in the quarter. 

International Paper has been witnessing weak packaging demand as inflationary pressures have impacted consumers, and their priorities have shifted toward non-discretionary goods and services. The company’s customers and the broader retail channel have been trying to lower their elevated inventories, impacting the packaging demand. However, these headwinds are likely to have been offset by stable demand in the e-commerce channel and IP’s growth initiatives.

IP Stock's Price Performance

International Paper's shares have lost 24.5% in the past year compared with the industry's 13% decline.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some Basic Materials stocks, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM, scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 12, currently has an Earnings ESP of +21.23% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Agnico Eagle Mines’ earnings for the fourth quarter are pegged at $2.19 per share, indicating a year-over-year jump of 73.8%. The company has delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 11.6%.

Pan American Silver Corp. PAAS, slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 18, has an Earnings ESP of +2.06% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pan American Silver’s earnings for the fourth quarter is pegged at 86 cents per share. The estimate indicates a significant climb from the earnings of 35 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter. Pan American Silver delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 31.6%.

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 18, has an Earnings ESP of +3.72% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

The consensus mark for Kinross Gold’s earnings is pegged at 56 cents per share. It indicates a year-over-year rise of 180%. Kinross Gold has delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 17.4%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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