What's in Store for Equity Residential Stock in Q4 Earnings?

Equity Residential EQR is slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results after the closing bell on Feb. 5. The company’s quarterly results are likely to reflect growth in both revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.

In the last reported quarter, this Chicago, IL-based residential real estate investment trust (REIT) came up with an in-line performance in terms of normalized FFO per share. Results reflected a rise in same-store revenues and physical occupancy on a year-over-year basis.

Over the trailing four quarters, Equity Residential surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on one occasion and met in the remaining three, the average positive surprise being 0.54%. The graph below depicts this surprise history:

Equity Residential Price and EPS Surprise

Equity Residential price-eps-surprise | Equity Residential Quote

As we approach the release of Equity Residential's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report, it is important to examine how this residential REIT is likely to have performed amid the current market conditions.

US Apartment Market in Q4

Apartment market fundamentals softened in the fourth quarter of 2025 as the sector normalized from the exceptional demand of recent years. According to the RealPage report, the market recorded net move-outs of about 40,400 units during the quarter, marking the first seasonal pullback in three years. Full-year absorption totaled just more than 365,900 units, signaling a return toward long-term leasing trends rather than a demand collapse.

Supply remains the primary pressure point. Approximately 409,500 units were delivered in 2025, including about 89,400 in the fourth quarter, keeping competition elevated despite a sequential slowdown in completions. As a result, occupancy slipped to 94.8%, while effective asking rents declined 1.7% quarter over quarter. Rents dropped 0.6% in the calendar year 2025, extending the year-over-year downturn for a second consecutive quarter. Concessions expanded meaningfully, with more than 23% of units offering incentives averaging 7%, reflecting landlords’ focus on protecting occupancy and cash flow.

Market performance remains uneven. Supply-heavy Sun Belt markets such as Austin, Phoenix and Denver experienced the steepest rent pressure, while coastal and tech-oriented metros, including New York and San Francisco, continued to post modest rent growth due to tighter supply.

Projections for EQR

While normal seasonal descent in pricing is expected in the fourth quarter, Equity Residential is likely to have witnessed a sequential decline in apartment supply in the fourth quarter in several markets. In this environment, Equity Residential’s quarterly results are likely to benefit from its strategic portfolio diversification across urban and suburban markets. Its focus on higher-income renters, a segment marked by lower unemployment and greater economic stability, is likely to have continued to serve as a significant strength. With a strong balance sheet, Equity Residential leverages technology, scale and operational efficiency to fuel growth. Its strong financial position is expected to support ongoing development initiatives. 

We expect fourth-quarter same-store revenues to increase 2.6% year over year, while same-store net operating income (NOI) is estimated to grow 2.3%. Physical occupancy is expected at 96.3%.

Currently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s quarterly revenues stands at $789.34 million, which indicates a 2.94% increase year over year.  

For the fourth quarter of 2025, the company projected normalized FFO per share in the band of $1.02-$1.06. Before the fourth-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were not adequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly normalized FFO per share has remained unchanged in the past month at $1.04. However, it suggests 4% year-over-year growth. 

For full-year 2025, Equity Residential expected its normalized FFO per share in the band of $3.98-$4.02. The company’s full-year guidance incorporated projections for same-store revenue growth of 2.5-3.0%, an expense increase of 3.5-4.0%, and an NOI expansion of 2.1-2.6%. Physical occupancy is expected at 96.4%.

For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for normalized FFO per share has risen a cent in the past month to $4.00. The figure indicates a 2.83% increase year over year in revenues of $3.10 billion.

Here Is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for EQR:

Our proven model predicts a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Equity Residential this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is the case here.
 
Equity Residential currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3 and has an Earnings ESP of +0.66%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some other stocks from the broader REIT sector — Regency Centers REG and UDR Inc. UDR — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.

Regency Centers, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +1.10% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

UDR is slated to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 9. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.74% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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