Affirm to Report Q2 Earnings: Will Higher GMV & Consumers Help?

Leading buy now, pay later (BNPL) solution provider Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRM is set to report its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Feb. 5, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s bottom line is currently pegged at an earnings of 28 cents per share on revenues of $1.06 billion.

The fiscal second-quarter earnings estimate has remained stable over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a 21.7% year-over-year jump. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 22%.

For fiscal 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm’s revenues is pegged at $4.05 billion, implying a rise of 25.7% year over year. The consensus mark for the current fiscal year’s EPS is pegged at 99 cents, implying a massive improvement from 15 cents a year ago.

Affirm beat the consensus estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 129.3%.

Affirm Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Affirm Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Affirm Holdings, Inc. Quote

Affirm’s Q2 Earnings Whispers

However, our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

AFRM currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Now, let’s see how things have shaped up before the fiscal second-quarter earnings announcement.

Q2 Factors to Note for Affirm

Merchant network revenues are likely to have benefited from an expanding Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV). The active merchants figure is expected to have witnessed a significant boost in the fiscal second quarter due to the company’s ability to strike deals with different businesses. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for merchant network revenues is pegged at $313.8 million, indicating a 28.2% rise from the prior-year quarter’s figure. 

The consensus mark for GMV for the fiscal second quarter implies 31.9% growth from the prior-year quarter’s number. Management anticipates the metric to be in the range of $13-$13.3 billion.

An increase in the number of transactions conducted through the Affirm platform is likely to have been supported by higher active merchants and consumers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for active consumers indicates 19.8% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for transactions per active consumer suggests a 13.6% rise from the year-ago period.

An increase in the usage of Affirm’s virtual cards is expected to have driven card network revenues. The consensus mark for card network revenues indicates a 41.1% improvement from the year-ago quarter’s number. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for interest income is pegged at $484.6 million, which implies an 18.4% year-over-year rise.

The consensus mark for servicing income is pegged at $41.6 million, which indicates a 45% jump from the year-ago quarter. However, the quarterly results are likely to have witnessed higher transaction costs. Yet, the company expects the adjusted operating margin to be within 28-30%.

How Did Other Payments Companies Perform?

Companies like Visa Inc. V, Mastercard Incorporated MA and American Express Company AXP have already announced results for the December quarter. Here’s how they have performed:

Visa reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 EPS of $3.17, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.14, thanks to higher payments and cross-border volumes. Resilient consumer spending remains a tailwind for Visa. However, the upside was partly offset by increased operating expenses and lower-than-expected processed transactions.

Mastercard reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $4.76 per share, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.3% on growing cross-border volumes, an increase in switched transactions and solid growth in value-added services revenues. However, the upside was partly offset by Mastercard’s elevated operating expenses.

American Express reported fourth-quarter 2025 EPS of $3.53, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.3%. However, the bottom line climbed 16% year over year. Elevated customer engagement and operating cost levels affected AXP. Nevertheless, the downside was partly offset by rising Card Member spending. Rising revolving loan balances and continued strong card fee growth provided impetus.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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