TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on TMC the metals company Inc. on stocks subreddit by lehmanhoes. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TMC. TMC the metals company Inc.'s share was trading at $8.41 as of January 28th.

The Metals Company (TMC) is a deep-sea mining firm focused on harvesting polymetallic nodules from the Pacific Ocean, targeting a critical intersection of geopolitics and the global metals market. These nodules are rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese—metals essential for electric vehicles and renewable energy—offering a potential alternative to China’s dominance in strategic materials. TMC is the only company globally with the technical capability to mine the ocean floor at scale, positioning it uniquely to capitalize on a global undersea metals market estimated to be as high as $20 trillion.

The company’s strategic nodules holdings, combined with its technological moat, make it a one-stop source for metals the West currently relies on China to supply. Geopolitical tailwinds further bolster the thesis, as U.S.–China trade tensions and the strategic importance of critical minerals create a favorable backdrop for government support. TMC has already filed for U.S. permits and operates under the International Seabed Authority framework, putting it ahead of potential competitors if regulations are finalized or the U.S. pursues independent action.

Executive actions from the White House, along with authorities under the Defense Production Act and potential direct government equity stakes, could serve as near-term catalysts, potentially accelerating TMC’s path to production and re-rating the stock. Analysts, including Wedbush, Cantor, Alliance Global, and HC Wainwright, have given buy ratings, with upside potential into the $20s if government support materializes.

While this is a binary, event-driven investment with significant downside risk, the combination of unique assets, geopolitical relevance, and regulatory momentum makes TMC a high-risk, high-reward opportunity for investors seeking exposure to critical metals supply chain disruption and strategic U.S. resource independence.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on MP Materials Corp. (MP) by Steve_Zissouu in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s vertically integrated rare earth operations, decoupling from China, and alignment with U.S. government critical minerals initiatives. The company's stock price has appreciated approximately by 181.96% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as MP remains central to Western-aligned supply chains. lehmanhoes shares a similar thesis but emphasizes TMC’s deep-sea polymetallic nodule mining as a high-risk, high-reward opportunity.

TMC the metals company Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 19 hedge fund portfolios held TMC at the end of the third quarter which was 19 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of TMC as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.