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This Just-Filed ETF Would Let You Bet On S&P 500 Hitting 10,000

By Chandrima Sanyal | February 04, 2026, 1:56 PM

Roundhill Investments is embarking on yet another ambitious foray into the realm of structured and outcomes-based ETFs with the submission of a new registration filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for what it's titled the Roundhill S&P 500 10,000 Target 2030 ETF. The filing indicates that the new fund will become effective 75 days from the date of submission.

What Is This ETF?

While ordinary index funds are content to simply track an index, this new ETF is designed as a target outcome vehicle, where its return profile is linked to whether the S&P 500 exceeds a predefined threshold by a fixed date (in this case, reaching a target level of 10,000 by 2030). Those investors seeking a no-frills market exposure may want to buckle up, as this ETF is a wager with a deadline.

Here are the essentials:

  • Objective: To offer substantial investment gains if the S&P 500 crosses its predefined target by the target date.
  • Strategy: Investing primarily in FLEX Options (customizable exchange-listed options) tied to ETFs tracking the S&P 500. If the S&P 500 fails to exceed the target, investors could see significant losses, even a complete loss of capital.
  • Underlying Exposure: Options on ETFs such as iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:IVV), State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPYM), and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) may be used to craft the desired payoff profile.
  • Risk Profile: The fund is explicitly highly speculative and non-diversified, meaning risks are concentrated and outcomes can vary widely based on market behavior.

Investment Mechanics — Not For The Faint Of Heart

The structure of the fund employs a strategy that is similar to a long call option on the S&P 500 Index with a specified strike and expiration, reset to new specified periods after each cycle. This means that if the index surpasses the target plus the cost of premium at the end of the period, investors may realize significant gains.

However, if the index fails to meet this threshold, the value of the ETF could fall significantly, potentially to zero.

In simple terms, this is no ordinary "buy & hold the market" investment vehicle. It is, in fact, a call option reinvented in the form of an ETF. Only investors who are convinced that the market will reach the specified target by 2030 would be advised to take the plunge.

Why It Matters

Roundhill has been at the forefront of innovation in differentiated ETF structures, including weekly distribution ETFs and thematic ETFs. This new filing is no exception. In the wake of market growth and innovation in ETF products, this target outcome fund may attract risk-tolerant investors or traders who want to gain exposure to defined outcome products without necessarily trading options.

Photo: Shutterstock

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