UDR Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

UDR Inc. UDR, a premier multifamily real estate investment trust (REIT), is set to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results after the closing bell on Feb. 9. Its quarterly results are likely to reflect growth in revenues as well as funds from operations (FFO) per share.

In the last reported quarter, this Denver, CO-based residential REIT came up with an FFO as adjusted per share of 65 cents, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 63 cents. The results reflected year-over-year growth in same-store net operating income (NOI).

In the last four quarters, UDR’s FFO as adjusted per share met the Zacks Consensus Estimate on two occasions and surpassed it on the other two, the average surprise being 1.60%. The graph below depicts the surprise history of the company:

United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc. price-eps-surprise | United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc. Quote

As we approach the release of UDR's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report, it is important to examine how this residential REIT is likely to have performed amid the current market conditions.

US Apartment Market in Q4

Apartment market fundamentals softened in the fourth quarter of 2025 as the sector normalized from the exceptional demand of recent years. According to the RealPage report, the market recorded net move-outs of about 40,400 units during the quarter, marking the first seasonal pullback in three years. Full-year absorption totaled just more than 365,900 units, signaling a return toward long-term leasing trends rather than a demand collapse.

Supply remains the primary pressure point. Approximately 409,500 units were delivered in 2025, including about 89,400 in the fourth quarter, keeping competition elevated despite a sequential slowdown in completions. As a result, occupancy slipped to 94.8%, while effective asking rents declined 1.7% quarter over quarter. Rents dropped 0.6% in the calendar year 2025, extending the year-over-year downturn for a second consecutive quarter. Concessions expanded meaningfully, with more than 23% of units offering incentives averaging 7%, reflecting landlords’ focus on protecting occupancy and cash flow.

Market performance remains uneven. Supply-heavy Sun Belt markets such as Austin, Phoenix and Denver experienced the steepest rent pressure, while coastal and tech-oriented metros, including New York and San Francisco, continued to post modest rent growth due to tighter supply.

Factors to Consider for UDR

UDR’s fourth-quarter results are likely to reflect the benefits of its diverse portfolio with a superior product mix of A/B quality properties in urban/suburban markets. This strategy of maintaining a diversified portfolio across various geographies and price points limits volatility and concentration risks while aiding the company in generating steady operating cash flows. 

UDR aligns lease expirations with peak leasing months to capture stronger rent growth while maintaining higher occupancy during typically slower periods, such as the first and fourth quarters. This balanced approach supports superior same-store revenue growth over the full cycle. About 60% of leasing occurs when blended lease rate growth outpaces peers. UDR made a strategic shift of 5% of expirations away from the softer fourth quarter of 2025.

The company is also leveraging technological initiatives and process enhancements to bring about operational resiliency across its platform. Such efforts are likely to give UDR a competitive edge over others and enable it to capture additional NOI, driving long-term profitability. 

UDR is also actively optimizing its portfolio to drive cash flow growth while maintaining access to diverse funding sources, including joint ventures, that are providing the capital needed to execute disciplined, accretive investments.

However, elevated rental unit supply in select markets has heightened competition and is likely to have weighed on its quarterly performance to some extent.

Projections for UDR

Amid these, we expect occupancy to stay elevated at 96.8%, suggesting a 20-basis-point increase sequentially.  We estimate rental income to grow 1.6% year over year for the fourth quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is currently pegged at $429.50 million. This indicates a 2.15% year-over-year rise.

UDR expected fourth-quarter 2025 FFO as adjusted per share in the range of 63-65 cents. Before the fourth-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were inadequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly FFO as adjusted per share has remained unrevised at 64 cents in the past three months. This suggests a 1.59% increase year over year.

For 2025, UDR expected FFO as adjusted per share in the range of $2.53-$2.55, with the midpoint at $2.54. For the full year, on a straight-line basis, the company projected growth rates for same-store revenues in the range of 2.20-2.60%, same-store expenses between 2.40% and 3.10% and same-store NOI between 2.00% and 2.50%.

For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FFO as adjusted per share has risen by a cent in the past month to $2.54. The figure indicates a 2.42% increase year over year in revenues of $1.70 billion.

Here Is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for UDR:

Our proven model predicts a surprise in terms of FFO per share for UDR this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is the case here.

UDR currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3 and has an Earnings ESP of +0.74%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are two other stocks from the retail REIT sector — Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT and Realty Income O — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.

Federal Realty, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 12, has an Earnings ESP of +0.90% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Realty Income, slated to release quarterly numbers on Feb. 24, has an Earnings ESP of +0.99% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO), a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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