Important Factors to Watch Ahead of BP's Q4 Earnings Release

BP plc BP is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 10, 2026.

In the last reported quarter, the British energy giant reported earnings of 85 cents per American Depositary Share (ADS) on a replacement-cost basis, excluding non-operating items. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 72 cents, thanks to an increase in oil production volumes and higher realized refining margins.

BP missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and beat twice, with the average surprise being 5.9%. This is depicted in the graph below:  

BP p.l.c. Price and EPS Surprise

BP p.l.c. price-eps-surprise | BP p.l.c. Quote

BP’s Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 57 cents per ADS, implying an improvement of almost 30% from the year-ago reported number. It has witnessed no estimate revisions in the past seven days.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $59.9 billion, suggesting a 24.6% rise from the year-ago actuals.

Q4 Earnings Whispers for BP

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for BP this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is the case here.

The integrated energy major has an Earnings ESP of +2.47% and a Zacks Rank #3.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

BP’s Factors to Note

To have an idea of how oil prices behaved in the December quarter last, let's analyze the commodity prices from the data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”). The average Cushing, OK WTI spot prices for October, November and December of 2025 were $60.89 per barrel, $60.06 per barrel and $57.97 per barrel, respectively. Commodity prices were $71.99 per barrel, $69.95 per barrel and $70.12 per barrel, respectively, in October, November and December of 2024, per EIA. While a lower crude pricing environment is likely to have hurt BP’s upstream business, it is expected to have benefited refining operations.

Other Integrated Energy Giants That Have Reported Q4: XOM, CVX

Two other integrated energy giants that have already reported fourth-quarter 2025 results are Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM and Chevron CVX. ExxonMobil reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $1.71 (excluding identified items), which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.68. Chevron also reported an earnings beat. CVX’s quarterly earnings per share of $1.52 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.44.

Other Key Pick

Here is one stock you may want to consider, as it has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) presently has an Earnings ESP of +0.84% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Antero Midstream is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 11. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 24 cents per share, suggesting a 4.35% increase from the prior-year reported figure.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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