Restaurant giant McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) could beat analyst estimates for the fourth quarter with a new report showing strong visitor growth during the past three months of 2025. The company reports fourth-quarter financial results on Wednesday.
Here are the earnings estimates, analyst ratings and key items to watch.
• McDonald’s stock is showing positive momentum. What’s the outlook for MCD shares?
McDonald's Q4 Earnings Estimates
Analysts expect McDonald's to report fourth-quarter revenue of $6.83 billion, up from $6.39 billion in last year's quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in five of the past 10 quarters, missing the estimate in the most recently reported third quarter.
Analysts expect McDonald's to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of $3.05, up from $2.83 in last year's fourth quarter.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in seven of the past 10 quarters, but missed estimates in the most recently reported third quarter.
McDonald's Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
Analysts have raised their price targets on McDonald's stock ahead of the earnings report. Here are some of the recent analyst ratings for McDonald's and their price targets:
- Mizuho: Maintained Neutral rating, raised price target from $300 to $325
- Guggenheim: Maintained Neutral rating, raised price target from $310 to $325
- BTIG: Upgraded from Neutral to Buy, with a price target of $360
- KeyBanc: Maintained Overweight rating, raised price target from $335 to $340
Key Items to Watch in McDonald's Q4 Earnings
McDonald's fourth quarter results could be all about loyalty and returning visitors. A new Placer.ai report showed the restaurant company saw strong visitor traffic in the past three months of the year, with the following:
- October: +4.8% year-over-year
- November: +6.5% year-over-year
- December: +5.6% year-over-year
This compares to the third quarter when the months of July, August and September all had visitor declines on a year-over-year basis according to Placer.ai tracking.
The Placer.ai report also showed that visitors are going to McDonald's more frequently, which could be in relation to the company's loyalty growth for MyMcDonald's Rewards.
Loyalty and visitor gains could be related to the company's launch of its Monopoly game on Oct. 6. The popular board game returned to McDonald's on a full basis for the first time since 2014. The game was tied heavily to the loyalty app this go around to increase future visits.
McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski highlighted just how important the loyalty program is for future sales growth during the company’s second-quarter earnings call.
“Roughly a quarter of our business in the U.S. is on our loyalty program,” Kempczinski said, as reported by CNN.
The McDonald’s CEO quantified the importance by saying non-loyalty U.S. customers visit McDonald’s 10.5 times a year on average. Rewards members average 26 visits to McDonald’s restaurants per year, more than double non-loyalty members, as reported by Customer Experience.
“Getting more and more consumers to be in our loyalty program — that’s how we’re going to drive this business, because it’s going to be frequency-led growth.”
The fourth-quarter report could be a turning point for the company as it comes after a double miss in the third quarter and with shares near all-time highs. A strong report and guidance could propel shares higher, while another double miss or weak guidance could send investors running.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), will be on watch with McDonald's earnings report. The restaurant stock is the eighth largest holding in the ETF at 4% of assets.
Other restaurant stocks will also be on watch as McDonald's could signal consumer spending habits and how value and loyalty are factoring into visitor traffic.
Kalshi Odds for Conference Call
Prediction market Kalshi allows users to wager on what the company will say on its conference call on Wednesday after market close. Here are the top words or phrases predicted to be said:
- Dividend: 89%
- Loyalty: 85%
- Delivery: 83%
- Happy Meal: 79%
- Tariff: 72%
- Monopoly: 70%
- Supply Chain: 64%
- Competition: 60%
McDonald's Stock Price Action
McDonald's stock trades up 0.14% at $326.07 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $283.47 to $328.06. McDonald's stock is up 7.4% year-to-date in 2026.
Photo: Shutterstock
