LyondellBasell to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. LYB is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 25, before the opening bell.

The company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, missed once and reported in-line results on the other occasion, with the average earnings surprise being 0.2%.

LYB stock has lost 42.3% in the past year compared with the Zacks Chemicals Diversified industry’s 26.3% decline.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Do Revenue Estimates for LYB Say?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s revenues is pegged at $7,593 million, indicating a decline of around 23.5% from the prior-year reported number.

For the Olefins and Polyolefins – Americas division, the consensus estimate stands at $2,737.8 million, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 4.6%. The same for the Olefins and Polyolefins – Europe, Asia & International division is pegged at $2,550.7 million, implying a 7.1% decrease from last year’s tally.

For LYB’s Advanced Polymer Solutions segment, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is $948.4 million, suggesting a 1.7% decline year over year.

The consensus estimate for the Intermediaries and Derivatives segment’s revenues is pinned at $2,472.9 million, suggesting a 4.4% decrease from the year-ago reported figure.

The same for the Technology segment's revenues is pegged at $175.4 million, suggesting an 8.6% fall from a year ago.

Factors at Play for LYB

LYB is expected to have faced margin pressures from higher ethane and natural gas prices in the first quarter. The company expects increased ethane and natural gas costs in the quarter due to higher winter energy demand, along with slight gains in product volumes as seasonal slowdowns ease and export markets remain strong.

Operations at the company's O&P-Americas facilities are projected to run at around 80% capacity during the first quarter, primarily due to scheduled maintenance at the Channelview olefin assets and disruptions caused by Winter Storm Enzo. Reduced rates and asset shutdowns associated with Enzo are likely to have adversely impacted production volumes and margins. 

LYB is expected to have benefited from demand gains across most product categories in the first quarter. The company expects to benefit from moderate demand improvements across most of its businesses as customers start restocking following year-end inventory reductions. Furthermore, octane premiums are anticipated to rise with the conclusion of the winter season.

What Our Model Unveils for LYB

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for LyondellBasell this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for LYB is -11.7%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate stands at 32 cents, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at 36 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: LyondellBasell currently carries Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

(Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Methanex Corporation MEOH, slated to release earnings on April 30, has an Earnings ESP of +4.74% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The consensus estimate for MEOH’s earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at $1.25. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

ATI Inc. ATI, slated to release earnings on May 1, has an Earnings ESP of +2.46% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The consensus mark for ATI’s first-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 58 cents.

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +13.21%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at 21 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.



 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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