Flowers Foods Q4 Earnings on Deck: What Could Shape Results?

Flowers Foods, Inc. FLO is likely to witness top-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on Feb. 12, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at around $1.2 billion, indicating a 10.9% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. 

The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 16 cents per share, suggesting a decline of 27.3% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. FLO has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.1%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 revenues stands at nearly $5.2 billion, calling for a 0.2% drop from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for fiscal 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.01 per share, suggesting a decline of 2.3% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

Factors Likely to Influence FLO’s Upcoming Results

Flowers Foods’ top line is likely to have been supported by continued contributions from its branded portfolio and the integration of Simple Mills. On the third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings call, management highlighted that branded retail sales trends were stabilizing, aided by distribution gains, innovation in differentiated offerings and improving promotional execution. The addition of Simple Mills has expanded FLO’s exposure to better-for-you snacking and enhanced its presence in faster-growing center-of-store categories.

Incremental distribution, innovation and portfolio diversification are likely to have remained the key drivers of revenue momentum in the fourth quarter. Our model suggests branded retail volumes will grow 2% in the fourth quarter.

The company continues to navigate a mixed demand environment in traditional packaged bread, where category softness and value-seeking behavior have pressured volumes. Flowers Foods has been balancing premium offerings with value-focused products while maintaining competitive promotional activity to protect share. These efforts may have supported sales but could have weighed on the product mix and margin performance.

Input cost headwinds and ongoing investments are likely to have pressured earnings on a year-over-year basis. Management noted ongoing cost pressures across certain ingredients, labor and distribution. The integration of Simple Mills and the continued ERP rollout are expected to carry near-term implementation and transition-related costs. We expect the adjusted operating margin to contract 100 basis points to 4.9% in the quarter under review.

Earnings Whispers for FLO

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Flowers Foods this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Flowers Foods carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Monster Beverage Corporation MNST currently has an Earnings ESP of +17.16% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The consensus estimate for Monster Beverage’s quarterly revenues is pinned at $2.1 billion, which indicates nearly 13% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Monster Beverage’s upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at 50 cents, which implies a 31.6% increase year over year. MNST delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.5%, on average.

US Foods Holding Corp. USFD currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.13% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The consensus mark for the upcoming quarter’s revenues is pegged at $9.86 billion, which indicates a jump of 3.9% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for US Foods Holding’s quarterly earnings per share of $1.00 implies growth of 19.1% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. USFD delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.5%, on average.

Celsius Holdings, Inc. CELH currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.46% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The consensus estimate for Celsius Holdings’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $638.2 million, which indicates a surge of 92.1% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celsius Holdings’ upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at 19 cents, which calls for a 35.7% jump year over year. CELH delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 42.9%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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