Could Nvidia's Sales Drop 30% due to a Trade War Between the U.S. and China?

It's been a rough year for Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). Since 2025 began, Nvidia's stock has fallen by more than 30%, shedding more than $1 trillion in value off the company's market cap. Yet Nvidia's end markets are still growing by leaps and bounds, especially when it comes to data center revenue tied to the artificial intelligence (AI) sector.

Investors looking for a rebound, however, should take caution. Up to 30% of the company's revenues could be at risk this year due to the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China. If you're betting on Nvidia, you need to understand what's at risk.

Up to 30% of Nvidia's revenues can be tied back to China

Earlier this month, Nvidia revealed that it may be forced to take a $5.5 billion charge related to H20 chips intended for sale in China. New rules may require the firm to obtain licenses to export these AI chips to China. According to the BBC, Nvidia was told that the license requirement "addresses the risk that the covered products may be used in, or diverted to, a supercomputer in China." Nvidia's management team was also told that these new rules "will be in effect for the indefinite future."

When looking at the latest filings, roughly 14% of Nvidia's sales last quarter stemmed from China. Losing this sales base would have a large negative effect, especially in light of Nvidia's premium valuation. But this figure could actually be dramatically understating China's true contribution to Nvidia's revenue streams.

Singapore, a neighboring country in Asia, accounts for a whopping 18% of Nvidia's current sales base -- even larger than China's contribution. Yet less than 2% of these sales actually export to Singapore as their end destination. "Customers use Singapore to centralize invoicing while our products are almost always shipped elsewhere," Nvidia's management team has clarified. Last month, it was found that many of these shipments ended up in China, meaning China's true share of Nvidia's sales base could be as high as 30%.

NVDA PS Ratio data by YCharts.

Will Nvidia's sales base really fall by 30%?

With new licenses being required to export its H20 chips, Nvidia will likely take an immediate multibillion dollar charge next month when its quarter closes. According to recent reporting, Chinese firms have placed more than $16 billion in orders for Nvidia's H20 chips over the 90 days of 2025 alone. All of these sales are now at risk. Meanwhile, local Chinese competitors like Huawei are investing heavily to expand their ability to replace Nvidia's lost sales base. The end result could see Nvidia losing considerable market share in the country, even if recent rules are rolled back. That's especially true given the Chinese government has been increasingly vocal about reducing its dependence on foreign chipmakers.

While Nvidia's sales base won't fall by 30% overnight, this is clearly a growing headwind for the company. At the start of 2025, shares were priced at 30 times sales despite a multitrillion dollar valuation, leaving little room for error. After losing around one-third of its value during the 2025 market correction, however, Nvidia's shares are now priced at just 18.4 times trailing sales and 11.7 times forward sales. It's possible that the threat to its Chinese sales base has already been priced in. But as the second-largest consumer of artificial intelligence graphics processing units (AI GPUs), losing China as a customer would be a long-term blow to Nvidia's growth prospects. This headwind is critical to watch for Nvidia investors moving forward.

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Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.