ETF Winners During Market Swings Since Trump's Win

Donald Trump’s second term has so far brought about major changes, including a surprising shift: the rise of the "sell America" trade, a sharp reversal from the optimism that marked his first term and the initial days of his win for the second term. Its’ been about six months since Trump’s win.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY has lost 5.5% over the past six months, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust DIA has slipped about 6%, the Nasdaq-100-based Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ has retreated 5% and iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has plunged about 15.5%. Meanwhile, volatility-based product iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN VXX surged about 35%.

From ‘US Exceptionalism’ to Investor Anxiety

At the outset of Trump's term, Wall Street celebrated "U.S. exceptionalism," due to hopes of corporate tax cuts and deregulation. But investor enthusiasm faded as soon as Trump introduced unexpectedly aggressive tariffs, igniting concerns over inflation and raising fears of a potential recession.

April’s Sell-Off: Fleeing All American Assets

A dramatic April sell-off further rattled markets, as investors simultaneously abandoned both U.S. stocks and bonds—a highly unusual move. Normally, money rotates between these two asset classes, depending on risk sentiment.

But in this instance, global investors viewed overall American assets as broadly risky, including stock, bond and currency, leading to a rare exodus (read: Top ETF Stories of April: 4 Winning Areas).

Markets Recover, But Volatility Persists

Though financial markets have bounced back somewhat — thanks to Trump offering brief pause on certain tariffs and advancing selective trade deals — the overall environment is far from steady. Ongoing volatility is likely, as the trade war navigates through its cycle of escalation and de-escalation.

Note that U.S. bond giant PIMCO told the Financial Times that recession risks are at their highest in years, as quoted on Reuters.PIMCO, in fact, raised its U.S. government debt exposure over the past two months, focusing on shorter maturities, due to high market volatility and a worsening fiscal outlook.

China Remains the Key Risk

The most significant breaking point remains China. With tariffs now reaching 145% on many imports, trade activity has almost come to a halt. As inventories dwindle, American consumers are already facing price increases and product shortages.

Investor Confidence Wavers — But Doesn't Collapse

Despite frustrations over the disruption caused by Trump’s trade war, many investors still believe in the long-term strength of the U.S. economy.  Per a Yahoo Finance article, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser underscored this sentiment at the Milken Institute Global Conference:

"The United States is still the world's leading economy, and this is the greatest capital market in the world. Show me the alternative."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent opened the conference by outlining the administration’s economic plan — combining tax cuts, deregulation, and tariffs. He described the U.S. economy as “antifragile,” meaning it grows stronger under stress, the same Yahoo Finance article noted.

Hopes Ahead?

With the rise of artificial intelligence, some believe productivity gains could surpass those seen during the digital revolution. If Trump’s deregulatory agenda holds, it could further amplify returns for investors.

Standout Investments Over the Past Six-Month Period

If we look at the winners since Trump’s win, we’ll see that gold has surged due to its safe-haven status, and so have the miners. Bitcoin has been in good shape since Trump’s win as the President is pro-crypto. Natural gas has rallied on its own demand-supply fundamentals.

Europe equities have skyrocketed during this period on policy easing, cheaper valuation, economic improvement and their recent status as a better alternative to the United States. Only exception in the U.S. market is probably video games stocks that rallied over the six-month period.

Winning ETFs in Focus

Below are winning exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from the above-mentioned investing areas.

STKd 100% Bitcoin & 100% Gold ETF BTGD – Up 49.1%

Select STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF EUAD – Up 46.2%

United States Natural Gas ETF UNG – Up 44.2%

Themes Gold Miners ETF AUMI – Up 36.7%

Roundhill Video Games ETF NERD – Up 19.6%

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research