Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell NVIDIA Stock Ahead of Q1 Earnings?

NVIDIA Corporation NVDA will report its fiscal 2026 first-quarter results on Wednesday, after market close. Trade disputes and competition from Chinese counterparts may weigh on NVIDIA, but advances in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) could help the company generate another quarter of revenue and profit growth.  

Let’s look at the possible first quarter outcome, and is NVIDIA stock a buy now? 

What to Expect From NVIDIA’s Fiscal Q1 Earnings? 

The fruitful launch of the Blackwell architecture helped NVIDIA’s revenues jump 12% sequentially and 78% year over year to $39.3 billion in the last reported quarter. NVIDIA expects to deliver such strong performance in its fiscal 2026 first quarter as well.  

Management anticipates that the ongoing adoption of AI will enable revenues to reach $43 billion (plus or minus 2%), surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $42.7 billion. This is a 62% increase from last year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is 85 cents, reflecting a 39.3% increase from the previous year. 

Also, NVIDIA has achieved an average positive earnings surprise of 7.9% over the last four quarters, indicating that it may meet the projected fiscal first-quarter earnings growth and drive its stock price higher. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.) 

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Although the Trump administration’s restriction on the sale of H20 chips to China might impact NVIDIA’s fiscal first-quarter performance, the long-term outlook remains promising as the company stays committed to the Chinese market. NVIDIA is anticipated to sell a revised version of H20 chips to China soon and has opened a lab in Shanghai to provide strong competition to rivals such as Huawei.

Reasons to Be Bullish on NVIDIA Stock 

The increase in demand for Blackwell chips, known for their efficiency, along with the rising popularity of the CUDA software platform among developers, will likely drive NVIDIA’s growth. NVIDIA also has a competitive edge in the graphics processing units (GPUs) space, with a more than 90% market share, according to IoT Analytics. This wide moat is expected to support growth further. 

Now, cloud computing stocks including Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN and Alphabet Inc. GOOGL are buying GPUs to boost computing power for AI workloads. These cloud computing stocks are spending billions of dollars on AI infrastructure, which would benefit NVIDIA as it provides processors used for AI.  

NVIDIA is also likely to gain from the upcoming phase of the AI revolution that includes self-driving cars and autonomous robots. NVIDIA’s technology is used by self-driving car companies, such as Tesla, Inc. TSLA and Alphabet’s Waymo, while NVIDIA’s Isaac is used by Amazon to train warehouse robots. 

Here’s How to Trade NVIDIA Stock Before Fiscal Q1 Earnings

Management’s optimism about better fiscal first-quarter results, an increase in demand for the latest chips, growing GPU acceptance, an uptick in AI data center spending, and a possible improvement in the company’s automotive revenues should persuade stakeholders to remain invested in the NVIDIA stock.

Moreover, it makes sense to hold onto NVIDIA stock because the company is fundamentally strong. It has been able to generate profits proficiently than the Semiconductor - General industry, with a net profit margin of 55.9%, which exceeds the industry’s 49.5%. 

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However, new entrants should adopt a wait-and-watch approach. NVIDIA’s China business does face some grave risk, and investors may want to wait for its first-quarter results to shed light on the scenario before placing a bet on the stock. For now, NVIDIA has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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