JPM Expanding Footprint to Serve Affluent Clients: Buy, Sell or Hold?

JPMorgan JPM is expanding its affluent banking services by opening 14 new J.P. Morgan Financial Centers across California, Florida, Massachusetts and New York. These new branches, many of which were formerly First Republic Bank locations, bring the total number of such centers to 16. JPM has plans to nearly double the figure by 2026.

Designed to offer a personalized, high-touch experience for affluent clients, these centers feature private meeting spaces and a refined environment. They cater to clients eligible for J.P. Morgan Private Client, offering dedicated support from Senior Private Client Bankers and access to JPMorgan’s full suite of wealth management and banking solutions.

The expansion reflects JPM’s strategy to deliver a premium, relationship-based banking experience that spans personal banking, lending and investment services. In addition to the new centers, the company operates 14 remote offices nationwide, enabling flexible support through Relationship Managers for clients preferring virtual engagements.

This initiative aligns with JPMorgan’s broader effort to tailor its branch network to client needs, combining digital tools, expert guidance and an expansive physical footprint. With these new financial centers, the bank is setting a new standard in serving affluent clients.

JPMorgan boasts the largest branch network in the United States and is the only bank with a physical presence in all 48 contiguous states. Last year, it opened more than 150 new branches and is on track to reach its goal of launching 500 additional locations by 2027. This continued expansion underscores the company’s commitment to nationwide accessibility and its confidence in the enduring value of in-person banking relationships.

JPM’s Net Interest Income (NII) Reliant on Fed’s Rate Path

Given the tariff-related uncertainty, market participants are predicting two to three interest rate cuts in the back half of the year. As such, JPMorgan’s NII is likely to face some “headwind on an exit rate going into next year” as its balance sheet is highly asset-sensitive.

The company’s NII witnessed a five-year (2019-2024) CAGR of 10.1%, mainly driven by the high-interest rate regime since 2022 and the acquisition of First Republic Bank in 2023. The momentum continued in the first quarter of 2025, driven by solid loan and deposit growth and higher revolving balances in Card Services. 

During the Investors Day conference on May 19, JPM’s chief financial officer, Jeremy Barnum, said, “The evolving tariff environment, combined with the preexisting geopolitical tensions, adds significant uncertainty into the economic outlook.” Despite this, he believes the company’s NII could increase by $1 billion this year, but stopped short of making the change in the NII outlook of $94.5 billion (up almost 2% year over year) as it's too early to comprehend the actual impact of various macroeconomic headwinds. Of the total NII, almost $4.5 billion is projected to be generated from Markets NII.

Like JPM, its close peers – Bank of America BAC and Wells Fargo WFC – expect NII to grow this year. Bank of America anticipates NII to jump 6-7% year over year, while Wells Fargo expects the metric to grow 1-3%.

Resurgence in Capital Markets to Support JPM in the Long Run

JPMorgan’s capital markets business (that includes investment banking or IB and markets) witnessed a robust comeback last year, with IB fees (in the Commercial & Investment Bank segment) jumping 37% year over year. In 2023, IB fees declined 5% and plunged 59% in 2022. Likewise, as trading volume and market volatility remained high in 2024, markets revenues benefited and grew 7%. 

Despite tariff-related ambiguity and extreme market volatility, the performance of the company’s capital markets business was decent in the first quarter of 2025. However, near-term IB prospects are cloudy because of economic uncertainty, which will likely hurt JPM’s IB business in the second quarter as deal-making activities have largely stalled. IB fees in the Commercial & Investment Bank (CIB) segment are expected to be down in the mid-teens range from $2.46 billion in the prior-year quarter.

On the other hand, JPMorgan’s markets revenues are projected to grow in the mid-to-high single-digits range for the second quarter of 2025. This is likely to be driven by a significant rise in market volatility and higher client activity.

Nonetheless, once there is a reduction in the level of uncertainty, JPMorgan is expected to capitalize on it, driven by a solid pipeline and origination of new activity. Also, the company will leverage its leadership position in the IB business (rank #1 for global IB fees in the first quarter of 2025) once the macro situation changes. Hence, JPMorgan’s long-term outlook for the IB business remains strong.

Opportunistic Acquisitions & JPM’s Other Expansion Efforts

JPMorgan has been growing through bolt-on acquisitions, both domestic and global. In 2023, the company increased its stake in Brazil's C6 Bank to 46% from 40%, allied with Cleareye.ai (a financial technology firm focused on trade finance) and acquired Aumni.  

Also, the company acquired the failed First Republic Bank in 2023. The deal continues to benefit JPM’s financials and even helped it reach record profits. Additionally, in 2022, it acquired Renovite and a 49% stake in Greece-based Viva Wallet and Global Shares. These deals, along with several others, are expected to support the bank's plan to diversify revenues and expand the fee income product suite and consumer bank digitally.

JPMorgan actively seeks to expand its digital retail bank – Chase – across the European Union countries after launching it in the U.K. in 2021. The company is focused on bolstering its IB and asset management businesses in China.

JPMorgan’s Fortress Balance Sheet and Solid Liquidity

As of March 31, 2025, JPM had a total debt of $471.9 billion (the majority of this is long-term in nature). The company's cash and due from banks and deposits with banks were $425.9 billion on the same date. The company maintains long-term issuer ratings A-/AA-/A1 ratings from Standard and Poor’s, Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service, respectively.

Hence, JPM continues to reward shareholders handsomely. In March, the company announced a 12% hike in its quarterly dividend to $1.40 per share. This followed an 8.7% increase in dividends in September 2024. In the last five years, it hiked dividends five times, with an annualized growth rate of 6.77%. Currently, the company's payout ratio is 27% of earnings. 

Similar to JPM, its peers – Bank of America and Wells Fargo – have been increasing their dividend payouts regularly. Bank of America raised its dividend four times in the last five years, while Wells Fargo has hiked it six times.

JPMorgan also authorized a new share repurchase program of $30 billion, effective July 1, 2024. As of March 31, 2025, almost $11.7 billion in authorization remained available.

JPMorgan’s Asset Quality Weakens

JPMorgan’s asset quality has been deteriorating. While the company recorded negative provisions in 2021, a substantial jump in provisions was recorded in the years after that because of the worsening macroeconomic outlook. The metric surged 169% in 2022, 45.9% in 2023 and 14.9% in 2024. Similarly, net charge-offs (NCOs) grew 117.6% in 2023 and 39.1% in 2024. The uptrend for both continued in the first quarter of 2025.

As interest rates are less likely to come down substantially in the near term, it is expected to hurt the borrowers’ credit profile. The company remains vigilant about the effects of continuous high rates and quantitative tightening on its loan portfolio. Also, the impact of tariffs on inflation is to be seen. Hence, the company’s asset quality is likely to remain subdued.

The company expects card NCO rates to be approximately 3.6% this year. For 2026, the metric is expected to rise year over year and be in the range of 3.6-3.9%.

JPMorgan’s Price Performance & Valuation Analysis

This year, shares of JPMorgan have rallied 10.7% against a 1.8% decline for the S&P 500 Index. Also, the stock has fared better than its peers – Bank of America and Wells Fargo.

YTD JPM Price Performance
 

From a valuation perspective, the stock appears slightly expensive relative to the industry. The stock is currently trading at the forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) of 14.17X. This is above the industry’s 13.35X, reflecting a stretched valuation. 

Price-to-Earnings F12M
 

Also, JPM stock is trading at a premium compared with its peers – Bank of America and Wells Fargo. At present, Bank of America has a forward 12-month P/E of 11.32X, and Wells Fargo is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 12.02X.

How to Play JPMorgan Stock Now

Earnings estimates for JPMorgan for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward over the past seven days. The positive estimate revision depicts bullish analyst sentiments for the stock.

JPM’s Earnings Estimates Trend
 

Nonetheless, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPM’s 2025 earnings implies a 7.1% fall year over year because of macro headwinds and higher non-interest expenses. Management anticipates non-interest expenses to be almost $95 billion this year, up from $91.1 billion in 2024. On the other hand, the consensus estimate for 2026 earnings suggests 5% growth.

Earnings Estimates
 

JPMorgan’s strategic expansion, resilient capital markets business, strong dividend growth and fortress balance sheet position it well for long-term gains. However, macroeconomic headwinds, including potential rate cuts, deteriorating asset quality and rising non-interest expenses, pose near-term risks. 

While the stock trades at a premium valuation, upward earnings revisions and JPM’s industry leadership justify a cautious buy for long-term investors. Those seeking stability, income and exposure to a diversified banking giant may find JPMorgan attractive, but should be prepared for short-term volatility due to economic uncertainty and elevated credit risks.

JPM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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