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The artificial intelligence (AI) trade has continued to thrive on Wall Street despite global trade tensions. In the first quarter, these billionaire hedge fund managers sold Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and bought Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET), a stock that split in December and has returned 530% in the last five years:
Importantly, Citadel and Millennium are two of the three most profitable hedge funds in the world, as measured by net gains since inception, which makes Griffin and Englander particularly good sources of inspiration. But the trades shown were made during the first quarter, which ended two months ago.
Here's what investors should know about Nvidia and Arista today.
Image source: Getty Images.
Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek shook investor confidence in Nvidia earlier this year when it reportedly trained sophisticated large language models with fewer and less powerful chips than United States competitors like Anthropic and OpenAI. Investors worried more efficient training methods would reduce demand for Nvidia GPUs, but the opposite is happening, as cheaper models have allowed more businesses to experiment with AI.
Investors are also concerned about the long-term impact of the trade war and chip export restrictions. Nvidia built H20 GPUs for China to comply with existing guidelines, but the Trump administration recently prohibited the sale of those chip in China. CEO Jensen Huang says Nvidia could miss hundreds of billions of dollars in sales in the years ahead because the Chinese market is effectively closed to the company.
Those concerns may explain why certain hedge fund billionaires trimmed their positions in Nvidia during the first quarter, but I don't think individual investors should follow their lead. Nvidia reported exceptional financial results in the first quarter, and the company recently won new business with big companies in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which drove the stock higher in May.
More broadly, Nvidia is the market leader in data center GPUs and InfiniBand networking, both of which play a crucial role in accelerating artificial intelligence workloads. Grand View Research estimates AI infrastructure spending will increase at 30% annually through 2030, and Nvidia is the company best positioned to benefit despite chip export restrictions.
With that in mind, Wall Street expects Nvidia's adjusted earnings to grow at 40% annually through fiscal 2027, which ends in January 2027. That makes the current valuation of 45 times earnings look reasonable. Patient investors should feel comfortable adding a few shares today.
Arista develops networking platforms for cloud and enterprise data centers. The company has disrupted the market with two important innovations:
Arista is the market leader in data center switching platforms, per consultancy Gartner. The company has a particularly strong presence in high-speed Ethernet switches, which are crucial for AI and other demanding workloads. Several major technology companies are Arista customers. The list includes Meta Platforms and Microsoft, as well as newer clients Apple and Oracle.
Additionally, JPMorgan Chase says Arista could win other major customers as hyperscalers connect their data centers. "Although [Alphabet-subsidiary] Google and Amazon have traditionally relied on whitebox solutions, there is an opportunity in the [data center interconnect] space for Arista's solutions as hyperscalers continue to grow their AI data centers," analysts wrote.
Wall Street expects Arista's earnings to grow at 12% annually through 2026. That makes the current valuation of 39 times earnings look relatively expensive. But I think analysts are underestimating the company, as they have in the past. Arista beat the consensus estimate by an average of 14% in the last six quarters. If that trend continues, the current valuation would look reasonable in hindsight.
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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Trevor Jennewine has positions in Amazon, Arista Networks, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Arista Networks, JPMorgan Chase, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Oracle. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and Gartner and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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