How ExxonMobil's Upstream Business is Coping With Falling Oil Prices

Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM generates a significant portion of its earnings from the upstream business, which is positively correlated with oil prices. Given that the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has declined more than 7% since the beginning of the year, XOM’s exploration and production business is likely to take a hit.

The latest short-term energy outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) reveals that the WTI spot average price in 2025 will be $62.33 per barrel, lower than $76.60 per barrel last year. The price of the commodity for 2026 is projected to further fall at $55.58 per barrel. Increasing inventories of oil across the world are leading to declining oil prices.

Undoubtedly, the declining oil prices are adversely impacting ExxonMobil’s upstream business and will continue doing so. Now, the billion-dollar question is: To what extent? Given that XOM has a significant presence in the Permian – the most prolific basin in the United States – where the breakeven costs are significantly lower than the prices at which analysts expect oil prices to trade, the largest integrated energy player is unlikely to witness a loss from its upstream operations. However, profits are expected to get squeezed following lower crude prices. 

Are CVX & BP Also Bearing the Brunt of Soft Oil Prices?

Both Chevron Corporation CVX and BP plc BP generate significant earnings from their upstream operations, and hence are bearing the blow of softer oil prices.

In the Permian, Chevron’s operations cover approximately 1.8 million net acres within the sub-basins of Delaware and Midland. Being a major player in the region, the breakeven costs of CVX are also low to combat the softer crude pricing environment. In the first quarter of this year, CVX mentioned that Permian primarily aided its production volumes.

BP also has solid upstream operations, comprising a top-tier oil and gas business in attractive basins. BP is also a low-cost producer. The British energy giant claimed that it has been able to keep the cost of producing oil very low. Thus, BP is among the lowest-cost producers in the industry.

XOM’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of XOM have gained only 1.6% year to date, outpacing the 0.9% improvement of the composite stocks belonging to the industry.

From a valuation standpoint, XOM trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 6.65X. This is above the broader industry average of 4.15X.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for XOM’s 2025 earnings hasn’t been revised over the past seven days.

XOM stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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