Monday, June 16, 2025
Pre-market futures are climbing this morning, filling in the holes left Friday as the Israeli attacks on Iran saw oil prices spike and questions abound on impacts to the global economy. As we’ve seen over the weekend, while the two countries trade missile strikes, we haven’t seen the Strait of Hormuz affected as of yet, nor any other major developments on the global stage.
We’re at this hour coming off peak levels of +295 points on the blue-chip Dow, +45 points on the S&P 500 and +205 points on the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The small-cap Russell 2000 was up +25 points in pre-market trading. Friday saw the Dow sink by more than -760 points, the Nasdaq -255 and the S&P 500 found its way back under 6K, -68 points.
The Fed meets for its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, starting tomorrow and concluding Wednesday. It is widely expected there will be no change to the Fed funds rate from the 4.25-4.50% range we’ve been in since December of last year. It will be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to a cooling — but not unraveling — labor market, as well as inflation metrics remaining north of their +2.0% target.
Empire State Falls More than Expected in June
The manufacturing survey known as the
Empire State Index is out this morning for the month of June, with the headline number coming 10 points lower than expected: -16.0. This follows an unrevised -9.2 the previous month, and extends the streak of negative manufacturing production for the state of New York to four months. Seven of the past 12 months have been negative, as well.
What to Expect from the Market Today
After today’s close, we will see fiscal Q2 results from Miami-based homebuilder
Lennar Homes LEN. Comps from the year-ago quarter are expected to be tough: earnings are projected to come in -42% and revenues -6% for the quarter. The company carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) into this afternoon’s report.
What to Expect from the Stock Market This Week
We have a pretty full plate for economic reportage this week, especially seeing we’re shortened by Thursday’s Juneteenth holiday, when the markets are closed. Thus, Weekly Jobless Claims, normally reserved for Thursday morning, will come out Wednesday ahead of the bell, instead.
Otherwise, we’ll see Retail Sales, Imports & Exports, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization — all for May. Also, Business Inventories for April and Homebuilder Confidence for June. Housing Starts & Building Permits for May also are expected, along with June Philly Fed numbers and U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for May.
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