Texas Instruments Stock: Congress Likes It, Should You Too?

Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN) is the Most Bought Stock by Congress, according to data reported by MarketBeat. That is a surprise, given the market’s focus on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), and the other leading AI semiconductor players.

However, four Congress members, including two Democrats and two Republicans, collectively made eight purchases, making it the most actively traded name in the market for the preceding 90-day period. Their purchases are relatively small, no more than $275,000, and spread relatively evenly across the group, but no less significant due to the who and when in question.

The who, of course, are members of Congress, investors with an above-average awareness of the political influence on business, and the when is the March-April period.

This is the time when the broad market, including Texas Instruments stock, sold off hard on tariff fears, administrative changes, and a flurry of Executive orders intended to bolster the U.S. domestic semiconductor manufacturing industry. That’s critical for Texas Instruments because it's a leading provider of embedded and analog processors with a significant domestic presence, manufacturing more than 70% of its chips in the U.S. 

Yes, Texas Instruments Is Expanding Its U.S. Infrastructure

Recent news includes Texas Instruments' plan to invest billions in capacity expansion, further strengthening its position. The $60 billion investment will be allocated toward seven projects that expand facilities in Texas and Utah. The expansion centers on low-cost 300mm production, and the first phase is expected to come online this year. The others will follow in quick succession, allowing the company to ramp production and sales while widening margins. Partners, including Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Ford (NYSE: F), Medtronic (NYSE: MDT), NVIDIA, and SpaceX, are reportedly strengthening their ties, ensuring demand will remain strong in the upcoming years. 

The partnership with NVIDIA is noteworthy. The two are working on power sensing and management for 800-volt, high-voltage (HVDC) power systems in data centers. The work is crucial because it will enable the scalability and reliability of next-gen AI infrastructure, including NVIDIA’s upcoming Rubin line of GPUs. 

Regarding the business results and outlook, the FQ1 2025 results were good, and the robust outlook likely underestimates the company’s positioning. Results in Q1 reveal the business has returned to growth after nine consecutive quarters of contraction. The growth was better than expected and is expected to accelerate sequentially and compared to last year in the upcoming report.

Looking further out, analysts forecast the company to sustain a low-double-digit to modest teens growth pace through the middle of the next decade, with margin widening the entire time. Earnings growth is expected to accelerate at a faster pace than revenue, with this trend continuing into the end of the decade. 

Texas Instruments Capital Return Shouldn’t Be Ignored

Although there is some risk to Texas Instruments' capital return, the risk diminished with the Q1 release and will continue to do so as the year progresses. In this scenario, the 2.7% dividend yield and share buybacks are attractive, and distributions can be expected to grow.

The company has increased the annualized payment for more than 20 years and is on track for inclusion in the Dividend Aristocrats index. Regarding the buybacks, they reduced the diluted share count incrementally in Q1, and the balance sheet suggests they will continue to do so. 

Balance sheet highlights at the end of Q1 reflect increased investment, with cash and equivalents down, which impacts current assets; however, this is offset by increased property and reduced liabilities. The company’s long-term debt is also stable, at roughly 0.75x the equity, leaving it in a nimble financial condition. It can sustain its capital return until earnings grow to cover it, which is expected in 2026. 

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