Apple's Powerful Macs Gaining Market Share: What's the Path Ahead?

Apple AAPL has been gaining share in the PC market thanks to strong demand for the latest Mac devices powered by the M4 family of chips: M4, M4 Pro and M4 Max. The iPhone-maker launched MacBook Pro that featured these latest chips on Oct. 30, 2024, and MacBook Air on March 5 this year. In the second quarter of fiscal 2025, Mac sales of $7.95 billion increased 6.7% year over year and accounted for 8.3% of total sales. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.99%.

Per IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, Apple’s market share in first-quarter 2025 increased 70 basis points (bps) year over year to 8.7% while Mac shipment jumped 14.1% to 5.5 million, highest growth in the list followed by ASUS’ 11.1%, Lenovo’s 10.8%, HP’s HPQ 6.1% and  Dell Technologies’ DELL 3%. In terms of market share, Lenovo leads with 24.1% trailed by HP’s 20.2% and Dell Technologies’ 15.1%. 

Per Gartner, Apple’s market share expanded 20 bps year over year to 10.1% while shipments increased 7% year over year to 5.933 million. Lenovo, HP and Dell Technologies had market shares of 25.9%, 21.6% and 16.3%, respectively. Per Gartner data, Lenovo’s and ASUS’ shipments increased 9.6% and 9.1%, respectively.

New M3 Ultra, macOS Tahoe 26 to Boost Apple Mac Growth

Apple’s focus on upgrading its chip capabilities is a key catalyst. On March 5, AAPL launched M3 Ultra, which offers the most powerful CPU and GPU in a MacBook. The powerful 32-core neural engine fuels AI and machine learning and powers Apple Intelligence. AI professionals can now use the Mac Studio with M3 Ultra to run large language models with more than 600 billion parameters directly on the device.

The upcoming macOS Tahoe 26 adds a new design with Liquid Glass, a translucent new material that reflects and refracts its surroundings. The OS offers more personalization for users. Apple is now expected to launch M5 chip-powered MacBooks this fall, which is expected to further drive Mac shipment volume.

Per our model, Apple’s Mac revenues are expected to see a CAGR of 1.9% between 2024 and 2027.

Apple Faces Tough Competition in PC Market

The growing interest in generative artificial intelligence-enabled PCs, along with Windows 11 upgrades and a probable PC refreshment cycle, is likely to drive fresh demand for PCs in 2025. This bodes well for Lenovo, HP and Dell Technologies, the major competitors of Apple.

HP forecasts that 40-60% of all PCs will be AI PCs in the next three years. The company has launched several AI PCs this year and plans to continue to expand its AI PC portfolio. 

Dell Technologies’ focus on commercial (accounts for 80% of its revenues from PCs) and high-end consumer market makes it a strong contender for a leadership position in the enterprise market, where Apple is gaining some traction.

AAPL’s Share Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Apple shares have dropped 19.7% year to date (YTD), underperforming the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s return of 6.2%.

AAPL’s Stock Performance

Apple stock is trading at a premium, with a forward 12-month Price/Earnings of 26.7X compared with the industry’s 26.16X. AAPL has a Value Score of D.

AAPL Valuation

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings is pegged at $7.11 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days, suggesting 5.33% year-over-year growth.
 

Apple Inc. Price and Consensus

Apple Inc. price-consensus-chart | Apple Inc. Quote

Apple currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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