Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Altria?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Altria (MO) earns a #2 (Buy) 19 days from its next quarterly earnings release on July 30, 2025, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.37 a share.
By taking the percentage difference between the $1.37 Most Accurate Estimate and the $1.36 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Altria has an Earnings ESP of +0.42%. Investors should also know that MO is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
MO is part of a big group of Consumer Staples stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Mondelez (MDLZ) as well.
Mondelez is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on July 29, 2025. MDLZ's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.70 a share 18 days from its next earnings release.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mondelez is $0.67, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +4.04%.
MO and MDLZ's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Altria Group, Inc. (MO): Free Stock Analysis Report Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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