Domino's Q2 Earnings on Deck: Will New Efforts Deliver a Sales Boost?

Domino's Pizza, Inc. DPZ is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 21, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, DPZ’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.1%.

The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 6.5%.

DPZ’s Q2 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $3.93 per share, which implies a 2.5% decrease from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. In the past 30 days, estimates for earnings have witnessed a downward revision of 0.3%. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.14 billion, which indicates growth of 4% from a year-ago actual. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

Factors to Note Ahead of DPZ’s Q2 Results

Domino's second-quarter 2025 results are likely to benefit from expansion efforts, robust digitalization and menu innovation. The company launched Parmesan Stuffed Crust Pizza, a high-profile addition to its menu, aligning with the “Hungry for MORE” strategy focused on "innovation with intent." Though launched late in first-quarter 2025, this product is likely to have boosted second-quarter 2025 performance through strong customer satisfaction, high order mix and elevated check sizes. 

Robust revenues from the supply chain, courtesy of higher order volumes and an increase in the company's food basket pricing to stores, are likely to have aided its top line. Domino’s ramped up its presence on aggregator platforms by launching on DoorDash in May 2025, complementing the existing Uber Eats partnership. Management expects DoorDash to be about 2x the size of Uber in terms of pizza sales. Partnership with DoorDash is likely to have aided the company’s performance. 

Domino's Rewards program has been playing a pivotal role in boosting its U.S. performance and driving customer engagement as well as ensuring repeat purchases. The company has also been benefiting from robust growth in India and China.

For the second quarter, our model predicts comps at the U.S. company-owned and franchise stores to grow 5.5% and 6.8%, respectively, year over year. Also, we expect international comps to increase 1% year over year.

Our model expects total U.S. store revenues to grow 4.9% from the year-ago level to $382.7 million. Per our model, supply-chain revenues are likely to rise 3.1% from the prior-year actual to $680 million.

Despite new initiatives, Domino’s is likely to have felt the impact of weak traffic, especially among lower-income consumers, which might have disproportionately affected its delivery business.

On the other hand, inflationary pressures in commodity and labor costs, as well as macroeconomic challenges, are likely to have negatively impacted the company’s bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for DPZ

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Domino's this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Domino's has an Earnings ESP of +0.49% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other stocks you may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this season.

Shake Shack Inc. SHAK currently has an Earnings ESP of +15.97% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Shake Shack’s earnings are expected to register a 33.3% year-over-year increase. Shake Shack’s earnings surpassed estimates in the trailing two out of four quarters, missed once and reported in line once, with an average beat of 4.1%.

McDonald's Corporation MCD has an Earnings ESP of +0.58% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. In the to-be-reported quarter, McDonald's earnings are expected to register a 5.7% year-over-year increase.

McDonald's earnings beat estimates in the trailing one out of four quarters, missed twice and reported in line once, with an average miss of 0.2%.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.96% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Cheesecake’s earnings are expected to decrease 3.7%. Cheesecake’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 15.1%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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