Is Kinross Gold Stock a Smart Buy Before Q2 Earnings Release?

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC is slated to report second-quarter 2025 results after the closing bell on July 30. The benefits of higher gold prices and strong production are expected to reflect on its performance amid headwinds from higher costs.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings has been revised upward in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 32 cents per share, suggesting a 128.6% year-over-year rise. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues currently stands at $1.35 billion, indicating a 10.3% rise on a year-over-year basis.

KGC beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed it once. In this timeframe, it delivered an earnings surprise of 16.1%, on average.

Q2 Earnings Whispers for KGC Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for KGC this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

KGC has an Earnings ESP of +0.93% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Shaping KGC’s Q2 Results

Higher gold prices are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the June quarter. Gold prices have racked up strong gains this year as worries over the global trade war have boosted safe-haven demand. Prices hit new highs driven by a surge in safe-haven demand amid the intense trade tussle, geopolitical tensions, a weak dollar and increased purchases by central banks. Prices of the yellow metal rocketed to a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22. 

While gold prices retreated from their April 2025 highs, they closed the second quarter above the $3,300 per ounce level, and are up roughly 26% so far this year. Our estimate for second-quarter average realized gold price per ounce for KGC is pegged at $2,771, suggesting an 18.3% rise from the prior-year quarter.

Kinross has a strong production profile and boasts a promising pipeline of exploration and development projects. Tasiast and Paracatu, the company’s two biggest assets, remain the key contributors to cash flow generation and production. Tasiast, which remains the lowest-cost asset within its portfolio, is likely to have achieved strong performance, while Paracatu is expected to continue to have delivered steady production in the second quarter.  

KGC, like most miners, is exposed to higher production costs. It saw a roughly 6% year-over-year rise in production costs of sales per ounce to $1,043 in the first quarter. All-in-sustaining costs (AISC) rose nearly 3% year over year to $1,355 per gold equivalent ounce sold. The inflationary pressure is likely to have continued in the second quarter, weighing on its overall financial performance. KGC, on its first-quarter call, said that it expects costs to rise in the remaining quarters of 2025. Our estimate for AISC for the second quarter stands at $1,499 per ounce, calling for an 8.1% year-over-year rise.

KGC Stock’s Price Performance and Valuation

KGC’s shares have surged 79.7% in a year, topping the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 42.7% rise and the S&P 500’s increase of 17.9%. With respect to its major gold mining peers, Barrick Mining Corporation B, Newmont Corporation NEM and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM have gained 18%, 34.3% and 64.6%, respectively, over the same period.

KGC’s One-year Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, Kinross Gold is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 11.44, a roughly 10% discount to the peer group average of 12.72X. KGC is trading at a premium to Barrick Mining and a discount to Newmont and Agnico Eagle. Both Kinross Gold and Barrick Mining have a Value Score of A. Newmont has a Value Score of B, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of C.  

KGC’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, B, NEM & AEM

Investment Thesis for KGC Stock

Kinross has a strong production profile, and boasts a promising pipeline of exploration and development projects. Its key development projects and exploration programs, including Great Bear in Ontario and Round Mountain Phase X in Nevada, remain on track. These projects are expected to boost production and cash flow and deliver significant value.

Kinross continues to demonstrate strong financial performance and remains committed to driving shareholder returns. KGC has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allows it to finance its development projects, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. Higher gold prices should boost KGC’s profitability and drive cash flow generation.

Final Thoughts: Buy KGC Shares

With a strong pipeline of development projects, solid financial health, rising earnings estimates and a healthy growth trajectory, KGC stock presents an attractive investment case ahead of its earnings announcement. With compelling fundamentals, and gold price tailwinds firmly remaining in place, KGC looks poised to deliver attractive returns to investors, making it a prudent choice for those looking to capitalize on the favorable market conditions.  

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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