Barrick Mining's Gold Sales Volumes Decline: Will It Rebound in Q2?

Barrick Mining Corporation B saw a 17% year-over-year decline in first-quarter 2025 gold sales volumes to 751,000 ounces. Volumes also fell 22% from the prior quarter, resulting in a 14% decline in the top line and a 52% decrease in net earnings. The downside in volumes was driven by the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine amid Barrick’s dispute with the Malian government over dividing the economic benefits, as well as lower production across Carlin and Cortez.

The volume contraction poses critical implications. Gold sales volume growth underpins Barrick’s ability to leverage higher gold prices, maintain margin expansion and deliver on growth targets for 2025 and beyond. Weaker production may continue to impact sales volumes in the second quarter. 

The company provided a tepid production forecast for 2025, with attributable gold production expected in the range of 3.15-3.5 million ounces, excluding production from Loulo-Gounkoto. While a potential restart of the mine would provide an upside, this projection suggests a year-over-year decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024. Despite gains in realized gold prices, volume growth would be critical to sustain revenues and margins in the coming quarters. 
 
Among Barrick’s major peers, Newmont Corporation’s NEM gold sales volumes fell sequentially and year over year in the second quarter on lower production. Newmont’s attributable gold ounces sold declined roughly 11% year over year and 5% from the prior quarter to roughly 1.36 million ounces. Newmont's attributable gold production of 1.48 million ounces in the second quarter was 8% lower than the prior-year quarter’s figure. 

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM saw a year-over-year decline in gold sales volumes in the second quarter. Agnico Eagle’s sales volumes fell 3% year over year to 846,835 ounces in the quarter. However, Agnico Eagle saw higher profits in the quarter despite lower sales volumes.

B’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Barrick’s shares have gained 36.3% year to date compared with the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s rise of 53%, courtesy of the gold price rally.

From a valuation standpoint, B is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 9.44, a roughly 21.7% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 12.06X. It carries a Value Score of A.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 55.6% and 24.1%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.

B stock currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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