Big Retail Earnings Charts: WMT, HD, TGT, LOW and EL.

Earnings season is winding down but that means we’re going to hear from the big cap retailers. This quarter, what they are saying about the US consumer will be more important than ever.

Additionally, tariffs of up to 50% have gone into place on many countries and products. Are the largest retailers seeing tariff impacts on margins? Will they be raising prices on some products to counter tariffs?

It’s not easy to beat on earnings with all of this uncertainty. Several of these companies have excellent earnings surprise track records, however, with one having a perfect 5-year record.

Will they beat again even with all the noise?

Retailers and Estee Lauder in the Earnings Spotlight

1. Home Depot, Inc. (HD)

Home Depot is coming off a rare earnings miss last quarter. It was Home Depot’s first miss in 5 years.

Earnings are expected to fall 1.4% this year. Home Depot trades with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.6. It’s not cheap. Shares of Home Depot are up 10.2% in the last month.

Is Home Depot a play on a turnaround in housing?

2. Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW)

Lowe’s is an earnings all-star. It hasn’t missed on earnings in 5 years. That’s impressive given that it includes part of the pandemic as well as the slowdown in housing after the Fed raised interest rates in 2022.

Lowe’s is expected to grow earnings 2.4% in fiscal 2026. Shares are up 14.9% in the last month on rate cut hopes.

At 20.5x forward earnings, is Lowe’s a deal?

3. The Estee Lauder Companies (EL)

Estee Lauder has a great earnings surprise record, having beaten 8 quarters in a row. It has only missed twice in the last 5 years even with the pandemic.

Estee Lauder’s recent earnings beats have been big, as well. Last quarter, Estee Lauder beat by 124%.

Estee Lauder shares have plunged in the last 5 years, falling 56% during that time. But they have rebounded over the last 3 months, gaining 39.6%. Estee Lauder isn’t cheap, with a forward P/E of 42.6.

Is the worst over for Estee Lauder?

4. Walmart Inc. (WMT)

Walmart has beat on earnings 12 quarters in a row. It has only missed twice in the last 5 years. That’s impressive.

Shares of Walmart hit new highs this year but over the last 3 months, with tariff uncertainty, they are up just 3%. Walmart is still an expensive stock on a P/E basis. It trades with a forward P/E of 38.4.

Will another beat be a catalyst for Walmart shares this quarter?

5. Target Corp. (TGT)

Target has missed 2 out of the last 4 quarters. It has the worst earnings surprise record of these 5 companies.

Shares have sunk to 5-year lows this year and are down 32% over that time. Earnings are expected to fall 15.6% this year. Target is now a cheap stock, with a forward P/E of 13.8.

Can Target turn it around this quarter?

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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