Record Closing Highs for Dow, S&P 500 on Econ & Jobs Strength

Thursday, August 28, 2025

Market indexes notched two new record closing highs this day: the blue-chip Dow grew +71 points, +0.16%, to 45,636, and the S&P 500 stepped past 6500 for the first time ever, +20 points, +0.32%. The Nasdaq came up a hair shy of a new closing high, +115 points, +0.53%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 gained +5, +0.22%.

A strong revision to Q2 GDP ahead of the open seems to have put investors in a good mood today, even as a stronger economy takes away some odds that the Fed will be cutting interest rates in the near-term. Weekly Jobless Claims remained remarkably steady, cooling concerns about an unraveling labor market.
 

Pending Home Sales Disappoint in July

Earlier today, Pending Homes Sales from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) came in negative for July: -0.4%, falling from the +0.3% analysts were expecting and the -0.8% reported for the month of June. Month-over-month numbers were lowest in the Midwest (-4.0%), but also ticked lower in the Northeast (-0.6%) and the South (-0.1%). Only the West region saw a nice bump (+3.7%).

With perceived Fed funds rate cuts on the table for September and beyond, now +16% of NAR members expect an increase in homebuying traffic over the next three months. Seller traffic is expected to rise +21%, up from +17% from the same period a year ago.
 

Earnings Roundup After Today’s Close

Autodesk ADSK shares are up +11% on its Q2 report after the close today, where earnings of $2.62 per share zoomed past the $2.44 in the Zacks consensus on revenues of $1.76 billion, which improved over the $1.73 billion expected. Guidance was also raised for both earnings and sales for the ongoing quarter, underlying strength for the varied software maker.

Dell DELL shares are flat at this hour following its Q2 results this afternoon, with earnings of $2.32 per share beating estimates by a penny on better-than-expected revenues in the quarter of $29.8 billion. There was some perceived weakness in the company’s important PC space, even as AI demand was “exceptional.”

Marvell MRVL results met Q2 estimates on both top and bottom lines after the bell — earnings of 67 cents per share and revenues of $2.01 billion — but lowered revenue guidance for current-quarter sales, and sending shares -9% lower in late trading for the custom microchip maker.

Affirm AFRM numbers flew by expectations on both earnings and sales, posting 20 cents per share versus the 11-cent estimate on $876 million in revenues, well above the $839.9 million analysts were looking for. Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) well outperformed estimates to $10.4 billion in the quarter.

Ulta Beauty ULTA is putting on a good face following today’s close, posting Q2 results well ahead of expectations: earnings of $5.78 per share on $2.79 billion in quarterly sales surged beyond the $5.03 per share and $2.65 billion, respectively. Comps more than doubled expectations to +6.7%, and shares are up +6% in late trading.
 

What to Expect from the Stock Market Tomorrow

Arguably even more important to the stock market than NVIDIA’s NVDA earnings yesterday afternoon are the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) numbers for July. This is the Fed’s preferred metric on inflation, and as such, a lot of attention will be paid to which direction these numbers go.

Expectations are for Income & Spending to tick up month over month but the overall PCE Index flat-to-down from +2.6% posted a month ago. Stripping out food and energy prices, analysts look for this to rise to +2.9% for last month versus +2.79%. This would be the third-straight month higher, therefore moving in the wrong direction — and surprising to the upside at +3.0% might be enough to send a wave through the market.

Also on the docket for Friday morning are the Trade Balance and Inventories for July, as well as the Chicago Business Barometer and final Consumer Sentiment numbers for August. All of these numbers will likely reflect tariff issues and clarified forward outlooks, to some extent — so they are worth watching.

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