Chipotle's Rewards Engine Gains Traction: Can It Drive Traffic?

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG is making a deliberate push to strengthen customer loyalty through its digital rewards platform at a time when consumer sentiment remains volatile. With comparable sales expected to be roughly flat for 2025, the company is turning to personalized engagement and gamified promotions to sustain traffic and frequency.

In the second quarter of 2025, Chipotle rolled out “Summer of Extras,” its first seasonal rewards program designed to deepen engagement across its 40 million-member base. The initiative drew 5 million participants, with about 40% completing transactions during the period. Notably, 2 million of these were low-frequency users who increased their activity under the program. Overall loyalty enrollments rose 14% year over year in the second quarter, while active members stand at roughly 20 million.

Management is layering technology on top of this base. An AI-powered “welcome journey” designed to secure three purchases within a new customer’s first 90 days has already generated a 46-47% uplift in engagement. Building on that, a “win-back journey” will soon target lapsed customers with tailored offers, expanding the platform’s reach across multiple consumer cohorts. Together, these initiatives aim to convert sporadic users into consistent, higher-frequency guests, bolstering Chipotle’s demand profile.
 
Early results suggest that the rewards engine is beginning to reshape traffic patterns. The rewards program is driving incremental transactions and providing a cushion against macro-driven softness, while also creating a more personalized and sticky digital ecosystem. By embedding loyalty into its operating model, Chipotle is positioning customer engagement as a lever of growth alongside menu innovation and new unit expansion.

Chipotle’s strategic rewards push could prove vital in stabilizing sales momentum as consumer spending patterns shift. With nearly half its enrolled members still inactive, the opportunity to scale engagement remains significant. If “Summer of Extras” and its successors continue to reenergize both new and lapsed users, the company’s digital ecosystem may emerge as a cornerstone of its long-term growth story.

How It Stacks Up to Competitors

Sweetgreen, Inc.’s SG recent loyalty overhaul illustrates both the promise and the near-term pain of program resets. Sweetgreen’s transition to SG Rewards weighed on performance in the second quarter, creating an estimated ~250 basis point drag on same-store sales. The headwind reflected deferred revenue recognition and a temporary dip in frequency among former Sweetpass+ subscribers. Management, however, expects this impact to flip into a tailwind as active membership expands and 90-day frequency strengthens through personalized CRM-driven offers. Sweetgreen is explicitly using loyalty to broaden value perception and drive frequency while simultaneously addressing in-store execution and portioning.

Starbucks Corporation SBUX represents the mature end of the loyalty spectrum, with Starbucks Rewards serving as a monetized growth driver. The company reported approximately 34 million 90-day active Rewards members in third-quarter fiscal 2025 and highlighted that nondiscounted transaction growth within this cohort remains robust, reinforcing the program’s ability to influence both frequency and average ticket. Looking ahead, Starbucks is preparing major Rewards enhancements and app upgrades slated for 2026, designed to deepen personalization and engagement. These digital initiatives are being paired with operational improvements such as Green Apron Service and SmartQ, which streamline in-store execution and reduce wait times. By integrating loyalty with service enhancements, Starbucks aims to translate product innovation and operational consistency into higher repeat purchases and sustained traffic gains.

CAVA’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of Chipotle have declined 18.7% in the past six months compared with the industry’s fall of 7.9%.

CMG Six-Months Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, CMG trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 4.04, above the industry’s average of 3.63.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chipotle’s 2025 and 2026 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year uptick of 8% and 17.7%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 have increased in the past 60 days.

Chipotle stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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