Can Dutch Bros Protect Its Margins as Coffee Inflation Heats Up?

Dutch Bros Inc. BROS is entering a period where margin preservation is taking on greater importance, even as the company continues to outperform on traffic and new unit growth. Its transaction-led model, supported by rapid digital adoption and strong new shop productivity, remains a competitive advantage. However, with input costs rising — most notably coffee — margin durability is becoming a more central consideration as BROS scales toward its long-term shop growth ambitions.

Management has identified accelerating coffee inflation as the most significant near-term headwind, warning that elevated costs are likely to persist into 2026. This pressure coincides with the early-phase rollout of Dutch Bros’ hot food program, which, while delivering a meaningful lift to comps through both ticket and transaction growth, carries structurally higher ingredient costs. As a result, the program introduces modest dilution to product margins in the near term, even as it strengthens the long-term revenue base by supporting the morning daypart and expanding customer occasions.

Labor provides partial relief, with better deployment and sales leverage offsetting earlier wage investments. However, the benefit is tempered by a regulatory-driven rise in employer payroll taxes in California, creating a temporary labor margin headwind. Preopening expenses are also trending higher as Dutch Bros enters new markets at a faster cadence and deploys larger training teams to support high-volume openings. These investments reinforce operational consistency but reduce EBITDA flow-through in the short run.

Even with cost pressures mounting, the company’s demand fundamentals remain a key stabilizer. Order Ahead adoption continues to climb — particularly in newer markets — enhancing throughput and supporting food attachments. Dutch Rewards has shifted toward more targeted, higher-efficiency offers, helping sustain frequency without heavy discounting. Combined with brand-building paid media efforts, these initiatives continue to fuel transaction momentum. As Dutch Bros navigates a more inflationary backdrop, its focus on disciplined execution and long-term platform development positions the company to absorb near-term margin volatility while preserving its multiyear growth trajectory.

BROS’ Stock Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of Dutch Bros have declined 3.6% so far this year compared with the industry’s fall of 11%. In the same time frame, other industry players like Starbucks Corporation SBUX, Sweetgreen, Inc. SG and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG have declined 8.3%, 81.1% and 48.5%, respectively.

BROS YTD Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, BROS trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 4.2, above the industry’s average of 3.35. Conversely, industry players, such as Starbucks, Sweetgreen and Chipotle, have P/S multiples of 2.44, 0.94 and 3.15, respectively.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BROS’ 2026 earnings per share has remained unchanged at 86 cents in the past 60 days.

The company is likely to report strong earnings, with projections indicating a 27.6% rise in 2026. Conversely, industry players like Sweetgreen and Chipotle are likely to witness an increase of 15.9% and 5.4%, respectively, year over year, in 2025 earnings. Meanwhile, Starbucks' 2026 earnings are likely to witness a rise of 15%, year over year.

BROS stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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