Maybe Lucid Was Right All Along -- Bad News for Truck Makers

Key Points

• Producing an EV pickup that's usable and cost-effective is a massive challenge.

• Tesla's Cybertruck has failed to come anywhere near the company's forecast of sales between 250,000 and 500,000 annually.

• General Motors was the lone bright spot with EV pickup gains through July.

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Perhaps management at Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) was right the entire time: Electric pickups just aren't going to be a winner in the near term.

"It's very tough to make an electric pickup work today," then-Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson said during the company's Tech and Manufacturing Day back in September 2024, adding, "not one that's usable and cost-effective."

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The bad news is that many of Lucid's rivals have tried and are mostly failing.

What have you done for me lately?

Let's briefly go down the list. Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) Cybertruck, which (it is fair to say) has been a commercial flop, has disappeared from Tesla's U.S. order page as battery-electric pickups industrywide feel the pain. Tesla introduced the base model in April with a sticker price roughly $10,000 lower in the hopes of attracting buyers, but it was essentially a gutted version of the vehicle and dropped key features that made the truck compelling to the small niche of an audience it had.

Back in 2019, CEO Elon Musk announced the cheapest version of the Cybertruck would start under $40,000 before shipping, but in reality, it retailed at nearly $70,000. Musk also predicted the pickup truck would sell between 250,000 and 500,000 units. While Tesla doesn't report sales by country or model, U.S. vehicle registration data can give us an idea of the sales landscape -- and it's not pretty. In fact, year to date through July, the Cybertruck had only 15,211 U.S. registrations, per S&P Global Mobility. That was good enough for a 14% decline compared to the same period in 2024. July registrations are down 54% year over year.

Tesla isn't the only automaker with a big truck problem. Ram, a major Stellantis (NYSE: STLA) brand, canceled plans for its first full electric pickup and attributed the decision to slowing demand for electric vehicles (EVs).

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN), in the same fashion as Tesla, doesn't report sales by country or model, but U.S. registrations for Rivian's R1T fell 37% year to date through July. July registrations dropped about as severely as Tesla's, down 40% to only 588 pickups. Ford Motor Company's (NYSE: F) F-150 Lightning faced a less drastic drop, but a drop nonetheless. The F-150 Lightning recorded a 12% drop in registrations through July, with July registrations down 15%. Ford rival General Motors (NYSE: GM) was the lone bright spot in an otherwise cloudy picture: The automaker's Silverado EV, Sierra EV, and Hummer EV all posted registration gains through July.

2026 Hummer EV. Image source: General Motors.

What's the problem?

Despite GM's bright spot, the pickup EV segment failed to break 50,000 sales through July, which is the opposite of the gasoline-powered full-size truck segment that powers sales by the hundreds of thousands annually. So what gives? Why is the EV truck segment so different from the gasoline segment?

Essentially, the economics of an electric pickup flip historic truths. The dirty little secret is that gasoline-powered full-size trucks cost only marginally more to produce than sedans, yet the former can power price tags 2 to 3 times higher. That gives full-size trucks margins that are unprecedented in the automotive industry, and have powered profits in Detroit for decades.

But when it comes to EV trucks, the largest cost component is typically the battery, and those weigh down margins significantly. And there isn't much breathing room because consumers view full-size trucks, even electric trucks, as a work tool and aren't generally willing to give up performance or towing power to lower price tags. It becomes incredibly difficult to turn a profit, even a gross profit, when massive battery packs on the market can cost around $50,000.

What it all means

But all is not lost. Eventually, battery prices will come down to earth, potentially opening the door for successful EV pickups -- Ford is already on this path.

In fact, Ford essentially has doubled down on its EV ambitions. It went back to the drawing board and revolutionized its historic assembly line into an "assembly tree," where three sub-lines produce their parts simultaneously before joining together. Not only is it expected to substantially improve production speed, by up to 40% compared to the current vehicles produced, but Ford also anticipates that the first EV to roll off the line will be an EV pickup that's expected to be profitable very early in its life cycle.

All this is for investors' knowledge, because full-size trucks have been a core part of any investors' thesis on automakers, but that thinking has to change in the near term as EV pickups simply won't be as lucrative for automakers and their investors. Automakers are on the right path, showcased by Ford's belief that it can turn a profit on its next EV pickup, but even then, the margins are still likely to be dwarfed by its gasoline counterparts. For investors, it's just the world we live in currently. The transition to full electric vehicles will be an expensive one. That likely makes automakers less desirable investments in the near term -- and the future of truck profitability may never be as lucrative.

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Daniel Miller has positions in Ford Motor Company. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends S&P Global and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Stellantis. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.