Carnival Stock Before Q3 Earnings: Buy Now or Wait for Results?

Carnival Corporation & plc CCL is scheduled to release third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CCL’s fiscal third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $1.31, suggesting 3.2% growth from $1.27 reported in the prior-year quarter. The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged over the past 60 days.

CCL Earnings Estimate Trend

The consensus mark for fiscal third-quarter revenues is pegged at $8.1 billion, indicating growth of 2% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Carnival has an impressive earnings surprise history. CCL’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 169.9%.

CCL Earnings Surprise History

Q3 Earnings Whispers for CCL Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Carnival this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here. 

CCL’s Earnings ESP: Carnival has an Earnings ESP of +3.34%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Carnival’s Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Influence Carnival’s Q3 Results

Carnival’s fiscal third-quarter performance is expected to have benefited from sustained yield momentum, strong European demand and the launch of Celebration Key. The company has consistently outperformed on both ticket prices and onboard spending, and these tailwinds are likely to have supported revenue generation in the to-be-reported quarter.

Europe is expected to have been a key contributor in the third quarter, with healthy summer demand trends supporting occupancy and pricing across itineraries. Management highlighted solid booking momentum leading into the quarter, reinforcing Carnival’s ability to capture premium pricing despite macroeconomic uncertainty. Robust onboard spending across food and beverage, retail and excursions is also likely to have provided incremental uplift, aided by higher levels of pre-booking activity. 

Our model estimates fiscal third-quarter passenger ticket revenues to rise 0.2% year over year to $5.25 billion. We expect onboard and other revenues to increase 2.3% year over year to $2.71 billion.

The opening of Celebration Key, Carnival’s Caribbean destination, is another fundamental that is likely to have shaped the quarter’s performance. Early indications suggest premium pricing for itineraries, including the destination, while increased marketing investment and strong customer interest have positioned it as a potential demand catalyst. The new destination is expected to have attracted strong traffic and incremental onboard revenue opportunities in the to-be-reported quarter.

Further, ongoing enhancements to the fleet, such as the AIDA Evolution program and preparations for the Star Princess launch, may have supported demand and strengthened pricing power. Carnival’s ability to refresh its existing assets while maintaining disciplined capacity growth likely aided yield management efforts during the quarter.

However, certain headwinds may have limited the extent of margin improvement in the fiscal third quarter. Management had flagged a 7% year-over-year increase in cruise costs excluding fuel for the fiscal third quarter, driven by Celebration Key start-up expenses, higher advertising costs, and the impact of lower capacity levels. Per our model, total operating expenses in the fiscal third quarter are anticipated to rise 1.5% year over year to $5.8 billion.

CCL Stock Price Performance & Valuation

Carnival shares have risen 20.5% in the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry’s growth of 11.2%. The stock has also outpaced the S&P 500’s rise of 11.6%. The company’s peers, including Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL,  Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH and OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited OSW, have gained 16.3%, 34.4% and 10.2%, respectively.

CCL Three-Month Price Performance

From a valuation perspective, Carnival stock is currently trading at a discount. Carnival is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 13.64X, well below the industry average of 18.77X. Other industry players, such as Royal Caribbean, OneSpaWorld Holdings and Norwegian Cruise, have a P/E of 18.84X, 10.38X and 19.41X, respectively.

Investment Considerations for CCL Stock

Carnival’s strong demand trends continue to underpin its raised 2025 yield guidance, supported by record customer deposits, historically high pricing and an elongated booking window that provides flexibility to optimize revenues. Nearly all core deployments are pacing ahead, with onboard spending growth reinforcing the company’s high-margin trajectory. Strategic initiatives, including the launch of Celebration Key, expansions at RelaxAway and Isla Tropicale, and fleet upgrades through the AIDA Evolution program, are expected to drive incremental revenue and enhance guest experience. 

At the same time, next-generation ships like the Star Princess and future Excel-class vessels strengthen Carnival’s product offering while maintaining a disciplined order book. On the financial front, accelerated deleveraging, nearly $7 billion of refinanced debt and improving leverage metrics are bringing the company closer to investment-grade status. With yield growth, free cash flow generation and the rollout of its new Carnival Rewards loyalty program set to deepen engagement and lifetime value, Carnival is well-positioned to sustain margin expansion and deliver long-term shareholder value.

How Should You Play CCL Pre-Q3 Earnings?

Carnival is well-positioned heading into its fiscal third-quarter earnings, underpinned by resilient demand, record deposits, and sustained strength in both pricing and onboard revenue. The successful launch of Celebration Key, coupled with ongoing fleet modernization and destination enhancements, reinforces its ability to capture premium pricing and elevate guest experiences. 

While cost pressures tied to new initiatives and higher marketing spend remain, Carnival’s disciplined cost management, strategic capacity planning, and ongoing deleveraging provide a path toward stronger margins and financial resilience. 

With its discounted valuation relative to peers, leadership in the global cruise industry, and a growing pipeline of investments, Carnival offers a compelling opportunity for long-term investors. As momentum builds into the third quarter of fiscal 2025 and beyond, Carnival’s fundamentals and execution strategy strengthen its case as a stock worth owning.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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