Thursday, October 2, 2025
It’s a quiet Thursday in today’s pre-market, with a federal government shutdown keeping us from Weekly Jobless Claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor and Factory Orders from the Census Bureau. With no signs of ending this week, this shutdown will also likely keep nonfarm payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from seeing the light of day tomorrow.
Thoughts on Labor Market/Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims had been coming down drastically, following a multi-year high from Labor Day week of +264K. Since then, we saw a huge drop to +232K the next week and +218K the week after that. We’d have to go back to mid-July to see a lower new jobless claims print. It’s a testament to the durability of the present-day labor market, or at least that of the recent past.
For Continuing Claims, we had been riding a three-week train below 1.94K, after 13 straight weeks above it (without once hitting the psychologically impactful 2 million longer-term jobless claims). These jobless claims reads have helped compartmentalize issues in the labor force, especially as we’ve begun to see a bit more volatility in these numbers of late.
Consider, for instance, yesterday’s private-sector payroll data from
Automatic Data Processing ADP, which posted its third month of negative job growth in the past four months. This is the worst performance in job growth since the initial months of the Covid pandemic. Considering the very healthy recent weeks of jobless claims we’ve seen, we could really have used Friday’s BLS report to help color in the lines of where the labor market truly stands.
Year to date, according to BLS, we’ve averaged +71K new jobs filled per month in 2025. Compare that with the previous eight-month average of +159K — it’s less than half. We’re also now being threatened with future government job layoffs, and repercussions from immigration crackdowns via ICE are beginning to show up in labor data, as well. To say nothing of pending — and present — threats of AI to the entry-level workforce. In short, it’s tough to see where a life raft in jobs data is going to come from.
Tesla Sets Record for Delivery Orders in Q3
As expected, based largely on the tax credit expiration for EV purchases,
Tesla TSLA delivered +497K automobiles in Q3. This is a new record for the U.S. EV leader, even with some “brand erosion” which occurred following CEO Elon Musk’s various antics, particularly in the political forum. The company produced 447K vehicles in the quarter.
The $7500 tax credit for buying EVs is expiring, so we expect Tesla deliveries in Q4 to feel the impact of this. Tesla is also seeing increased competition in the European EV market, including Chinese companies BYD and MG. Even still, after market gains of +88% in Tesla shares over the past year, the stock is up another +3% in early trading today.
Factory Orders Had Been Expected +1.4%
Elsewhere, dormant Factory Orders numbers for August keep additional manufacturing data under wraps for now. We had expected to see a swing back into positive territory, +1.4% from -1.3% in July, and hopefully reversing the weak trend of three down-months in the past four. Manufacturing data from S&P PMI earlier this week was steady and positive (52.0) while ISM numbers were improving but still in slight retraction (49.0).
What to Expect from Today’s Stock Market
Pre-market futures are mixed at this hour — the Dow -14 points, the S&P 500 +20 and the Nasdaq +150 — based on similar sentiment we’ve seen recently: AI investment and deal-making is very real and the race is on. AI-based tech firms, from the $4.5 trillion
NVIDIA NVDA to the sub-$10 billion
D-Wave Quantum QBTS, are driving the bus right now. You can get on, but don’t get in the way.
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Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP): Free Stock Analysis Report NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Free Stock Analysis Report Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): Free Stock Analysis Report D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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