Prediction: 1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Will Be Worth More Than Alphabet and Amazon Combined by 2030 (Hint: Not Nvidia)

Key Points

• Microsoft's enterprise-focused AI strategy offers it greater resiliency.

• For example, the company has a substantial contracted backlog.

• Alphabet and Amazon may face some challenges despite advances in AI.

• 10 stocks we like better than Microsoft ›

Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a major disruptive force, transforming businesses and reshaping our daily lives worldwide. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) are widely seen as key beneficiaries of this revolution. Alphabet (through Google Cloud and Workspace) and Amazon (through AWS) serve enterprise markets. Still, they are also heavily exposed to consumer-driven segments, such as digital advertising and e-commerce.

On the other hand, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is more enterprise-centric, with a business model primarily based on seat-based subscriptions and long-term contracts. This recurring, enterprise-first model gives Microsoft stronger visibility than its peers, which are more reliant on cyclical consumer markets.

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This edge may help propel Microsoft's market capitalization ahead of Alphabet and Amazon by 2030. Here are some other reasons why this prediction can become a reality in the next few years.

The case for Microsoft

Microsoft's enterprise-focused AI strategy is proving to be a key advantage. Overall, over 800 million monthly active users are engaging with all the AI features embedded in its portfolio.

The company has integrated Copilot across its core offerings, including Office, Teams, Dynamics, Security, and GitHub, and monetizes it through either recurring subscriptions or consumption-based pricing. The Copilot family of apps caters to over 100 million monthly active users. While Copilot is used by nearly 70% of Fortune 500 companies, there remains a significant opportunity to further expand usage within existing accounts.

Copilot is also the fastest-growing product in the Microsoft 365 productivity suite. With an installed base (paid M365 commercial seats) of over 430 million and initial pricing of $30 per seat per month, there is still a long runway for seat penetration and an increase in average revenue per user in future years.

Increasing adoption of cloud computing is also a significant growth catalyst. Azure has become the second-largest cloud infrastructure services player globally, with a 20% market share. By aggressively expanding its data center capacity, which now spans over 400 Azure data centers across 70 regions, Microsoft is preparing to meet the rapidly increasing demand for AI.

The company is also rolling out liquid cooling and software improvements at data centers, which are crucial for conserving power while running complex AI workloads. All this can translate into lower unit costs and better margins for Microsoft, especially as workloads scale.

Beyond compute, Microsoft has also built an extensive technology stack. At the data layer, the company has a complete data and analytics platform called Fabric. The company operates Azure AI Foundry at the model layer, enabling enterprises to build, manage, and customize AI applications and agents at scale. Finally, at the application layer, Copilot, Copilot Studio, Copilot Tuning, and SharePoint enable organizations to create millions of custom agents embedded directly in their daily workflows.

Together, this can position Microsoft as the operating system for enterprise AI -- another exceptional opportunity for the long run. The end-to-end stack helps create a sticky customer base, reduces customer churn, and increases contract size. Microsoft already has a contracted backlog of $368 billion at the end of fiscal 2025. The company also has a 98% annuity mix, implying that 98% revenues are recurring in nature. The company, thus, enjoys high revenue visibility in the coming years.

Microsoft trades at 28.3 times forward earnings, which is not exactly cheap. However, the premium is justified considering the durability of its enterprise-first model and the fact that it is in the early stages of AI adoption. Hence, Microsoft's shares could still offer considerable upside over the next five years.

Alphabet and Amazon may stumble

Although Alphabet and Amazon are formidable players in AI, Microsoft appears far more resilient. Alphabet's Gemini family of models is now helping enhance monetization across its core offerings, including Search, YouTube, and Android. Google Cloud is also the third-largest cloud infrastructure services provider, with a 13 % market share.

However, increasing evidence suggests that the company's flagship Google search business has come under intense threat, especially from AI chatbots and other AI-enhanced search engines.

Alphabet also faces risk to its digital advertising business in the current challenging economic environment. The rising number of antitrust cases in the European Union limits its ability to integrate search and digital advertising with AI capabilities. Hence, while at 22.8 times forward earnings, Alphabet looks cheaper than its peers, the discount can be attributed to the inherent challenges faced by its business.

Amazon is also investing heavily in generative AI technologies to strengthen its e-commerce and Amazon Web Services (AWS) business. The company's Bedrock service (used by customers to develop and scale custom AI applications, while also giving access to multiple foundation models) is gaining traction. The company says its custom Trainium chip is showing 30% to 40% better price-performance than other graphics processing units (GPUs) providers in inference workloads. AWS remains the leader in the cloud infrastructure services market, with a 30% market share.

However, the company's key engine, AWS, saw revenue grow at 17.5% year over year in the recent quarter, far lower than the 34% year-over-year growth reported by Azure. The company's e-commerce margins are also low. Hence, Amazon's ability to fund future AI initiatives without compromising on near-term profitability looks weak. Despite these challenges, the company is trading at an elevated valuation multiple of 28.9 times forward earnings, leaving little room for error.

Many prominent analysts also view Microsoft as a company with significant upside potential. Coatue's Philippe Laffont estimates Microsoft's market capitalization to be nearly $5.7 trillion by 2030. Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities expects Microsoft's market capitalization to potentially surpass $5 trillion by the end of 2026 (18 months from June 2025).

Hence, Microsoft appears to be better positioned than Alphabet and Amazon to grow in the current economy. In case Alphabet and Amazon stumble, Microsoft's market value can surpass even their combined values by 2030.

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Manali Pradhan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.