Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Vertex Pharmaceuticals?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) earns a #3 (Hold) 28 days from its next quarterly earnings release on November 3, 2025, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $4.89 a share.
VRTX has an Earnings ESP figure of +7.18%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $4.89 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.56. Vertex Pharmaceuticals is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
VRTX is just one of a large group of Medical stocks with a positive ESP figure. Moderna (MRNA) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Slated to report earnings on November 6, 2025, Moderna holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is -$1.73 a share 31 days from its next quarterly update.
For Moderna, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$1.95 is +11.41%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, VRTX and MRNA could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX): Free Stock Analysis Report Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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