Fed's FOMC Meeting in Focus

Pre-markets are keeping the pedal mostly to the metal this morning, with most of the major market indexes higher again following record closing highs Monday afternoon. The Dow is +220 points, the S&P 500 is +7 and the Nasdaq +41. Only the small-cap Russell 2000 is lower at this hour, by -7 points.

A new Fed Survey out this morning lays out what market participants have already been trading on — up between +4.5% and +6.5% from October 11 lows, depending on the index — with a +92% chance of a 25 basis-point (bps) rate cut at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting tomorrow, another 25 bps cut at the December meeting, and — this is new — possibly another cut in January. By the end of 2026, the survey expects to see the Fed funds rate between 3.00-3.25%, -100 bps from where we are currently.

As far as he government shutdown is concerned, neatly everyone believes it will be over by the end of this month or sometime in November. Almost no one says it will go into the new year. Currently, at 28 days, it is the second longest government shutdown, behind only the 35 days during holiday season of 2018-19, regarding funding for the border wall with Mexico.

There is also a preliminary report out this morning from Automatic Data Processing ADP this morning, which averages out private-sector job creation on a four-week basis. Inspired partly by the ongoing government shutdown, this is the preliminary average’s maiden voyage:

Ending the week of October 11, the four-week average in private-sector job growth is +14K — still paltry, but a meaningful improvement over a negative September average. This suggests that at next week’s monthly ADP report we’ll see private-sector jobs gains at +55K. ADP will now release these numbers with a two-week lag each Tuesday, with the possible exception of the week in which monthly ADP data is released.

Case-Shiller Home Prices Fall in 19 of 20 Cities

New August data for Case-Shiller Home Prices (these numbers, while aggressively in arrears, are routinely cited as the most accurate in the housing industry) showed +1.5% price growth year over year overall, even as prices fell month over month in 19 of 20 cities. Year over year, the 10-City composite was +2.1% (down 20 bps month over month) and the 20-City reached +1.6% (from +1.8%). Year-over-year price gains were biggest in New York City and Chicago, deepest cuts were in Tampa and San Francisco.

Biggest Earnings Surprises Ahead of the Open: UPS, VFC, PYPL

UPS UPS shares are up +12% on this morning’s big +32% earnings beat, with +2.8% growth on the company’s top line. The “turnaround plan” for the delivery and logistics giant looks to be in place. Shares are still down double-digits year to date on rough terrain regarding U.S. tariff policy. 

V.F. Corp. VFC also shows signs of a turnaround, with a +23.8% earnings beat in its fiscal Q2, on +2.8% revenue growth in the quarter. Beyond tariff issues, the Vans-North Face-Timberland parent has seen a weakened market over the past two years. Shares are up +3% in the pre-market. 

PayPal PYPL posted a +12.6% positive earnings surprise this morning on its bottom line in Q3, with a +2% beat on quarterly sales. Sweetening this news was the unveiling of a strategic partnership with OpenAI (although who doesn’t have one of these by now? ;) ). Shares were up double-digits on the news.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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