Can Ford's F-Series and Super Duty Ramp Offset the Novelis Impact?

U.S. legacy automaker Ford F is dealing with a production disruption after the Novelis fire, but the company isn’t sitting still. The company expects to add more than 50,000 extra F-Series pickups in 2026, beginning in Q1’26. Ford will add up to 1,000 new jobs and significantly ramp production at both the Dearborn Truck Plant and Kentucky Truck Plant next year. The goal is clear— F aims to recover lost volume and meet strong demand for gas and hybrid F-150s and Super Duty pickups.

At Dearborn, Ford will launch a third crew and target more than 45,000 additional F-150 units in 2026. This crew will largely be formed by moving workers from the paused F-150 Lightning plant next door, as Ford temporarily shifts focus away from the electric pickup to prioritize higher-margin gas and hybrid trucks. Supporting plants at the Ford Rouge Complex will also add about 170 employees to keep up with stamping and manufacturing needs.

At Kentucky Truck Plant, Ford plans to raise the assembly line speed by one job per hour — adding over 5,000 extra Super Duty trucks per year — and will bring on more than 100 new workers alongside a $60 million investment in training and line upgrades.

Ford’s quick move to boost F-Series output highlights how essential this lineup is to Ford’s overall profitability. On the Q3 earnings call, management pointed to strong demand and firm pricing in full-size pickups. Also, 2026 is likely to bring a meaningful mix opportunity. With expected relief in emissions requirements, Ford will no longer need to lean into higher-margin trims like Tremor and Raptor, and it can adjust hybrid pricing more strategically. Lastly, Ford’s 2026 ramp-up should help replace the trucks lost after the Novelis fire. A new crew in Dearborn and a faster line in Kentucky are expected to add back roughly 50,000 units next year.

The Zacks Rundown for Ford

Shares of Ford have gained 16% over the past three months, underperforming the industry as well as its closest peer, General Motors GM. But F has outperformed Toyota TM over the same timeframe. Shares of General Motors and Toyota rose 27% and 5%, respectively, in the past three months.  Both General Motors and Toyota don’t expect the Novelis issue to impact their operations the way it has for Ford.

From a valuation standpoint, F trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.33, below the industry average. It carries a Value Score of A. In comparison to this, General Motors and Toyota trade at 0.37 and 0.82, respectively.

Take a look at how Ford’s EPS estimates have been revised over the past 90 days.

Ford stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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