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Pfizer PFE stock has been trading above its 50-day moving average since early November, indicating a potential short-term bullish trend. The 50-day SMA is a key indicator for traders and analysts, used to identify support and resistance levels. It is considered particularly important as it's the first marker of an uptrend.
The stock has also been trading above its 200-day average since the end of September.
The stock has gained recently after it won the bidding war against Danish rival, Novo Nordisk NVO, related to the acquisition of obesity drug developer, Metsera. After a heated battle with PFE and NVO raising their offer prices for Metsera back and forth, Pfizer eventually acquired Metsera, a New York-based biotech, for around $10 billion, and the deal closed last week. Pfizer shares also gained after it signed a drug pricing agreement with the Trump administration in September. PFE has offered to cut prescription drug prices and boost domestic investments in exchange for a three-year exemption from tariffs on pharmaceutical imports.
So, is it the right time to stock up on shares, or should you book profits? Let’s delve deeper into the company’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Pfizer is one of the largest and most successful drugmakers in oncology. The addition of Seagen strengthened its position in oncology.
Oncology sales comprise around 28% of its total revenues. Its oncology revenues grew 7% year to date, driven by drugs like Xtandi, Lorbrena, the Braftovi-Mektovi combination and Padcev. Pfizer has ventured into the oncology biosimilars space and markets six biosimilars for cancer. Pfizer also advanced its oncology clinical pipeline with several candidates entering late-stage development. By 2030, it expects to have eight or more blockbuster oncology medicines in its portfolio.
Pfizer is also working on expanding the labels of its approved products (oncology as well as non-oncology) like Padcev, Adcetris, Litfulo, Nurtec, Velsipity and Elrexfio, among others.
Pfizer’s non-COVID operational revenues are improving, driven by its key in-line products like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis, new launches and newly acquired products like Nurtec and those from Seagen (December 2023). Pfizer's recently launched and acquired products rose approximately 9% operationally in the nine months of 2025, with the momentum expected to continue.
Continued growth of Pfizer’s diversified portfolio of drugs, particularly oncology, should support top-line growth in 2025.
Pfizer’s new products/late-stage pipeline candidates and newly acquired products position it strongly for operational growth in 2025 and beyond. Pfizer expects the 2025 to 2030 revenue CAGR to be approximately 6%.
Pfizer is also trying to expand its pipeline through acquisitions. In the first nine months of this year, Pfizer has invested approximately $1.6 billion in business development transactions, primarily reflecting the 3SBio licensing deal. In addition, the $10 billion Metsera acquisition has brought Pfizer back into the lucrative obesity space after it scrapped the development of danuglipron, a weight-loss pill, earlier this year. The acquisition will add Metsera’s four novel clinical-stage incretin and amylin programs, which are expected to generate billions of dollars in peak sales. Eli Lilly LLY and Novo Nordisk currently dominate the obesity space.
Pfizer is seeing a softness in sales of its COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, due to lower vaccination rates and COVID infection rates.
Changes in recommendations for COVID vaccines may result in lower vaccination rates in certain markets. For instance, in September 2025, the ACIP voted to adopt a “shared clinical decision-making” approach for all FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccines, like Comirnaty. The decision narrowed the recommendation for Comirnaty, reducing the eligible population for the vaccine and hurting its sales in the United States in the third quarter.
In 2025, Paxlovid has seen lower demand as a result of lower infection rates.
Though Pfizer expects a moderate negative impact on revenues from the loss of exclusivity (“LOE”) in 2025, the impact is expected to be significant in the 2026-2030 period as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xeljanz and Xtandi, will face patent expirations.
Pfizer expects an unfavorable impact of approximately $1 billion from the Medicare Part D redesign under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which took effect in the first quarter of 2025 and is hurting Pfizer’s revenues in 2025. Higher-priced drugs, including Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xtandi and Xeljanz, are expected to be most affected by the IRA.
Pfizer’s stock has lost 5.4% so far this year against the increase of 13.9% for the industry. The stock has also underperformed the sector and S&P 500, as seen in the chart below.
From a valuation standpoint, Pfizer appears attractive relative to the industry and is trading below its five-year mean. Going by the price/earnings ratio, Pfizer’s shares currently trade at 7.97 forward earnings, significantly lower than 16.71 for the industry as well as the stock’s five-year mean of 10.48. The stock is also much cheaper than other large drugmakers like AbbVie, Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, J&J and others.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has risen from $3.07 per share to $3.13 for 2025, while the same for 2026 is stable at $3.15 per share over the past 30 days.
Pfizer stock has taken a beat for the past three years as its revenues have declined substantially due to lower sales of its COVID products. In addition to COVID-19 product-related uncertainty, Pfizer faces some other challenges, like U.S. Medicare Part D headwinds and the upcoming LOE cliff in the 2026-2030 period. However, Pfizer’s key drugs like Vyndaqel, Padcev and its recently launched and acquired products should help the company largely offset its LOEs over the next several years.
Pfizer expects cost cuts and internal restructuring to deliver savings of $7.7 billion by the end of 2027. Though Pfizer does not expect strong top-line growth over the next three years due to the LOEs, it expects EPS growth. Pfizer’s dividend yield stands at around 7%, which is impressive. This landmark agreement with the U.S. government was an important milestone for Pfizer as it provides longer-term clarity on the company’s strategic investment in innovation and growth.
Investors should continue to retain this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock in their portfolio as it appears to have significant upside potential. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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