Citigroup's Card Metrics Improve Y/Y: What it Means for Asset Quality?

Citigroup Inc.’s C subsidiary, Citibank N.A., reported mixed credit card performance for October 2025 in its latest SEC filing.  For the period ending October 2025, the Citibank Credit Card Master Trust delinquency rate increased to 1.42% from 1.38% in September 2025. However, the figure decreased from 1.52% recorded in October 2024. It also declined from the 1.58% level posted in October 2019.

Meanwhile, the Credit Card Issuance Trustnet charge-off rate declined to 1.95% in October 2025 from 2.50% in the prior month. The figure also dropped from 2.36% in October 2024 and 2.61% in October 2019.

Citibank’s lending activity showed a slight slowdown. Principal receivables stood at $20.2 billion compared with $20.3 billion at the beginning of September 2025. On a year-over-year basis, receivables declined 6.9%.

While the improvement in net charge-offs and delinquencies on a year-over-year basis is encouraging and suggests near-term stability in repayment behavior, the continued slide in receivables highlights underlying consumer strain amid persistently high borrowing costs. Further, the company’s net credit losses (NCL) witnessed a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3% over the past four years ended in 2024. In the first nine months of 2025, NCL rose 2.2% year over year. Also, the bank’s provisions for credit losses expanded at a CAGR of 38.9% from 2022 to 2024, and the rising trend continued in the first nine months of 2025.

Looking ahead, Citigroup’s profitability may face headwinds from the continued rise in credit losses in its Branded Cards portfolio. Management expects Branded Cards' NCL between 3.50% and 4% in 2025. Retail Services NCL is projected to be between 5.75% and 6.25%. In 2024, Branded Cards and Retail Services reported net credit losses of 3.64% and 6.27%, respectively.

Should economic conditions weaken further, losses may accelerate, prompting higher loan-loss provisions and pressuring earnings. Also, with interest rates expected to stay elevated for longer, borrowers’ repayment capacity will remain under strain. These dynamics suggest that Citigroup’s asset quality is likely to remain under pressure in the near term.

How Citigroup Compares With Peers in Credit Card Performance

Bank of America BAC and JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM also reported the October 2025 card delinquency rate and charge-off.

Bank of America’s BA Master Credit Card Trust II reported a delinquency rate of 1.38% in October, down from 1.52% a year earlier. Bank of America’s net charge-off rate fell to 2.11% from 2.41% in October 2024.

JPMorgan Issuance Trust's delinquency rate edged up to 0.88% in October from 0.87% in the prior year, indicating a slight increase in past-due accounts. Further, JPMorgan’s net charge-off rate declined to 1.44% from 1.62% in October 2024.

C’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of Citigroup have gained 36% over the past six months compared with the industry’s growth of 18.8%.

Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, C trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.35X, below the industry’s average of 14.06X.

Price-to-Earnings F12M

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for C’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year rallies of 27.4% and 31.2%, respectively. The estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward over the past 30 days.

Estimates Revision Trend

Currently, C carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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