BP Surges Ahead of Peers: What's Driving the Momentum?

BP plc BP shares have posted impressive gains of 22.5% over the past 12 months, outperforming the broader Oils-Energy sector, which has declined 1.3%, and the S&P 500 Index, which has risen 14.7% over the same timeframe. BP has also outpaced its energy sector peers, including Chevron Corporation CVX and Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM, which have posted declines of 8.4% and 2.7%, respectively, in the past year. ExxonMobil currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) while Chevron has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

While the price outperformance indicates investor confidence in the stock, it is worth understanding the factors behind BP’s recent gains and what they mean for its near-term outlook.

Positive Factors Boosting BP’s Performance

Upstream Growth: BP has made strategic progress in its upstream segment this year, with the startup of six new oil and gas projects. These six projects are expected to add a combined net peak production of 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The projects include Cypre and Mento in Trinidad and Tobago, Raven Infills in Egypt, the Greater Torque Ahmeyim in Mauritania and Senegal, the Murlach project in the U.K., and the Argos Southwest Extension project in the Gulf of America. BP plans to start up four more upstream projects by 2027. These projects are expected to boost the British energy giant’s asset base and secure a robust production outlook. Furthermore, the company has made 12 exploration discoveries this year, including a promising hydrocarbon discovery at the Bumerangue block in Brazil. BP has described Bumerangue as the largest discovery in 25 years. These discoveries add to the company’s deep portfolio of high-quality assets that should sustain long-term production growth.

Progress on Divestment Program: BP is making significant progress on its $20 billion divestment target, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2027. Recently, BP announced the sale of non-controlling interests in its Permian and Eagle Ford pipelines to Sixth Street for $1.5 billion. Additionally, the company noted that there was strong commercial interest in its other assets, like Gelsenkirchen and Castrol. BP intends to use its divestment proceeds to unlock value and reduce its high debt levels. This also allows the company to streamline its asset portfolio and focus on high-value assets. With its third-quarter results, BP announced that it expects divestment and other proceeds to be above $4 billion this year. The increase in its proceeds guidance is underpinned by completed and announced asset sales worth approximately $5 billion.

Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: BP presents a favorable investment case in terms of its strong free cash flow growth outlook. In its third-quarter earnings call, BP stated that it is making good progress toward its adjusted free cash flow generation target, which is projected to witness a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20% between 2025 and 2027. The growth is underpinned by its disciplined capital allocation and robust upstream operations. The projected cash flow growth provides resilience against market volatility and supports long-term shareholder returns.

Risk Factors to Consider

Commodity Price Sensitivity: A primary risk factor for BP’s operations is the significant volatility in commodity prices and market conditions. The company’s strategic reset announced in February 2025 stated that the company would shift its focus back to its traditional fossil fuels business, cutting back on renewables. With its major involvement in the upstream sector, BP’s overall financial performance is highly vulnerable to the oil and gas pricing environment. Lower commodity price realizations and weakened refining margins may adversely affect the British energy giant’s overall profitability.

High Debt Levels: BP’s debt-to-capitalization ratio has remained significantly higher compared to its industry peers over the past years. The company reported net debt of $26.1 billion at the end of the third quarter. BP’s total debt-to-capitalization ratio stood at 43.67%, compared to the industry average of 31.96%. The high debt ratio indicates potentially higher financial risk for the company. Furthermore, the liability stack includes not only debt but also other components like Gulf of America settlement payments and other financial obligations, which may constrain its financial flexibility and reinforce the need for disciplined capital allocation.

Hence, it is recommended to exercise caution with this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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