IONQ or Rigetti: Which is the Better Quantum Bet as 2025 Nears End?

As 2025 draws to a close, quantum computing is entering a major transition, from scientific research and development to early commercial traction. There are only a few companies that embody this shift more directly than IonQ IONQ and Rigetti Computing RGTI. Both firms remain pure-play bets on quantum hardware advancement and cloud-delivered quantum computing services, giving investors exposure to one of the most asymmetric technology opportunities of the decade. Yet their paths into 2026 reflect sharply different execution styles, capital strategies and technology roadmaps, making it important for market participants to study each company’s trajectory in detail.

For investors positioning ahead of 2026, understanding each company’s current capabilities, financial posture and forward-looking catalysts is essential to identifying which pure-play quantum stock offers the stronger upside potential. Let's get into the details.

The Case for IONQ Heading Into 2026

Technical momentum: The company reports reaching its #AQ 64 performance milestone on Tempo three months ahead of schedule and positioning Tempo to ship in 2026. At the same time, IonQ publicly announced a world-record 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity and described integration of Oxford Ionics’ Electronic Qubit Control (EQC) into the roadmap (notably the 256-qubit demonstration slated for 2026). Together, these announcements signal that IonQ is emphasizing not only qubit counts but algorithmic usefulness and gate quality, metrics investors should watch as near-term technical proof points.

Commercial progress:Third-quarter 2025 revenues totaled $39.9 million, a 222% year-over-year increase and 37% above the high end of guidance. Management attributes the upside to both computing and growing sales in networking, sensing and cybersecurity product families. The company also flagged large pipeline opportunities (three-digit-million-dollar deals and $1 billion-plus proposals) and pointed to new contracts, such as work with the Department of Energy and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. These indicate a shift from selling individual systems to selling integrated solutions and recurring revenue streams.

Balance sheet & capital strategy: IonQ significantly strengthened its cash position in October with a $2.0 billion equity offering that, together with quarter-end balances, produced a pro-forma cash position of roughly $3.5 billion and no debt. Management has tied that capital plan to an aggressive multiyear product roadmap (256-qubit, Tempo shipping, and far-term targets into the thousands of qubits) plus inorganic moves to broaden TAM (Oxford Ionics, Vector Atomic, and a later announced intent to acquire an optical communications company).

The Case for RGTI as Year-End Approaches

Roadmap & Technical Strategy: Despite revenue softness, the third quarter saw Rigetti reaffirm an ambitious roadmap. It is on track to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system with 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity by end-2025. Management expects to ship a 150+ qubit system by end-2026 (targeting 99.7% fidelity), and aims for a 1,000+ qubit system by end-2027 (median 99.8% fidelity). This modular, chiplet-based “tiling” strategy is central to Rigetti’s scaling vision. As of mid-2025, the company had already released a 36-qubit multi-chip system (Cespehus-1-36Q), claiming a 2× reduction in two-qubit gate error relative to prior-generation systems. If executed, this roadmap could significantly increase the company’s computational capacity.

Early Commercial & Institutional Traction: Rigetti’s early commercial traction in the third quarter of 2025 was modest financially but strategically important for widening its market reach. The company booked two purchase orders totaling $5.7 million for its upgradeable 9-qubit Novera systems, due for delivery in early 2026, signaling growing interest in on-premises quantum hardware. It also secured a $5.8 million, three-year Air Force Research Laboratory contract with QphoX to advance superconducting quantum networking, strengthening its foothold in defense applications. Beyond sales, Rigetti broadened its ecosystem through an MoU with India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, deeper academic engagement with Montana State University, and participation in NVIDIA’s NVDA NVQLink initiative to accelerate hybrid quantum-classical workflows. The company also moved to establish an Italian subsidiary to tap European funding and talent.

Over the past three months, shares of Rigetti have gained 69.4% compared with IonQ’s 13.6% rise. Both stocks have strongly outperformed the S&P 500’s 5.7% growth during this period.

2025 Earnings Estimates More Favorable for RGTI

Estimates for IONQ have declined from a loss of $1.77 per share to a loss of $5.14 per share for 2025 over the past 30 days. This signifies a decline of 229.5% from the 2024 comparable figure.

On the other hand, estimates for RGTI declined from a loss of 9 cents per share to a loss of 68 cents per share for 2025 over the past 30 days. This implies a decline of 88.9% from the 2024 comparable figure.

Final Take

At this stage, both IonQ and Rigetti offer speculative pathways into 2026, reflected in their respective Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here.

IonQ enters the new year with far stronger revenue momentum, clearer commercial diversification and an exceptionally fortified balance sheet that reduces near-term financial risk and enables an accelerated multi-year roadmap.

Rigetti, meanwhile, is showing sharper operational leverage relative to expectations. Its scaling roadmap is more near-term tangible, its earnings revisions are more favorable, and its stock performance over the past quarter is markedly stronger as investors reward its tightening execution and expanding institutional traction.

On balance, IonQ is likely to maintain the comparative advantage from a financial strength and commercial visibility standpoint, while Rigetti is likely to offer the higher-beta upside if it continues meeting technical milestones.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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