A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Mondelez (MDLZ). Shares have lost about 1.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mondelez due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Mondelez International, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Mondelez Q3 Earnings & Sales Beat Estimates
Mondelez International posted third-quarter 2025 results, with the top line increasing year over year and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, the bottom line declined year over year but beat the consensus mark.
The company updated its 2025 outlook, reflecting a slightly more cautious stance than its previous guidance.MDLZ expects some market challenges to continue, but sees early signs of cocoa price easing and a better crop outlook. Management is focused on restoring volume growth, boosting brand investments, and improving cost efficiencies, positioning the company for steady progress in 2026 and beyond.
Net revenues increased 5.9% year over year to $9,744 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9,737 million. The year-over-year increase in the top line stemmed from an increase in organic net revenues, positive foreign currency impacts, and additional revenues from the acquisition of Evirth.
Adjusted earnings were 73 cents per share, which decreased 24.2% on a constant-currency (cc) basis. The metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 72 cents. The decline was mainly caused by operating declines, partially offset by lower taxes, fewer shares outstanding, higher equity method investment earnings, and the impacts of an acquisition.
Organic net revenues grew 3.4% year over year in the third quarter. This upside was primarily fueled by an increase of 8.0 percentage points (pp) in pricing, partially offset by an unfavorable volume/mix impact of 4.6 pp. Our model estimated organic net revenue growth of 4.6%.Revenues from emerging markets increased 9.9% to $3.88 billion, and rose 7.1% on an organic basis. Organic growth was backed by favorable pricing actions, which increased 11.8 pp and unfavorable volume/mix was down 4.7 pp.
Revenues from developed markets increased 3.3% to $5.86 billion, with an organic rise of 1.2%. This growth was primarily driven by strong pricing execution, which increased 5.7 pp, while the volume/mix effect declined 4.5 pp.
Region-wise, revenues in North America declined 0.4% year over year. The metric in Latin America; Asia, the Middle East and Africa; and Europe grew 2.8%, 9% and 10.6%, respectively. On an organic basis, revenues rose 4.7%, 5.3% and 5.1% in Latin America; Asia, the Middle East and Africa; and Europe, respectively. In contrast, organic revenues in North America fell 0.3%.
Adjusted gross profit decreased by $796 million at cc, and the adjusted gross margin declined by 1,010 basis points to 30.4%. The decrease was primarily caused by higher raw material and transportation costs and an unfavorable product mix, partially offset by increased pricing and lower manufacturing costs resulting from productivity improvements.
Mondelez’s adjusted operating income decreased by $582 million at cc, while the adjusted operating income margin declined by 690 basis points to 12%. The decrease was primarily driven by higher input cost inflation and an unfavorable product mix, partially offset by higher net pricing, lower advertising and consumer promotion costs, reduced manufacturing costs from productivity gains, and lower overhead expenses.
Mondelez’s Financial Health Snapshot
The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1.37 billion, long-term debt of $17.1 billion and total equity of $26.2 billion. MDLZ provided $2.12 billion in net cash from operating activities for the three months ended Sept. 30, 2025. The adjusted free cash flow was $1.24 billion for the same period. Management expects a free cash flow of more than $3 billion for 2025.
The company returned $3.7 billion to shareholders through cash dividends and share repurchases in the first nine months of 2025.
What to Expect From MDLZ in 2025
Mondelez’s updated 2025 outlook reflects a slightly more cautious stance compared to its previous guidance. The company expects organic net revenue growth of 4% or higher, down from the earlier mentioned 5%.
Adjusted EPS is anticipated to decline 15% year over year on a cc basis, a steeper drop than the prior stated 10%. Currency translation is estimated to increase 2025 net revenue growth 0.5% and raise adjusted EPS by 5 cents.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted -13.81% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Mondelez has a poor Growth Score of F, a score with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Mondelez has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
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Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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