ALK to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing for the Stock?

Alaska Air Group ALK is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 22, 2026, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALK’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share has been revised downward by 64.5% in the past 60 days to 11 cents. The consensus mark implies an 88.7% decline from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALK’s fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $3.64 billion, indicating 3.1% year-over-year growth.

ALK has an impressive earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 27.03%.

Alaska Air Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Alaska Air Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Alaska Air Group, Inc. Quote

Let us see how things have shaped up for ALK this earnings season.

Factors Likely to Have Influenced ALK’s Q4 Performance

We expect ALK's performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been boosted by an uptick in total revenues, driven by high passenger revenues, as domestic air-travel demand stabilizes.

Upbeat passenger volumes during the Thanksgiving holiday period are likely to have boosted the top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Our estimate for passenger revenues in the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 14.7% increase from the fourth-quarter 2024 actual. Meanwhile, our model estimate for cargo and other revenues is pegged at $146.6 million, indicating 11.1% growth from the prior-year reported figure.

On the contrary, geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures and persistent inflation are likely to have weighed on ALK’s operations. These headwinds may have caused volatility in passenger traffic and, in turn, limited the airline’s ability to maintain strong yields and consistent revenue growth.

What Our Model Says About ALK

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ALK this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

ALK has an Earnings ESP of -6.04% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Highlights of ALK’s Q3 Earnings

Alaska Air reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.05 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.11 per share and declined 53.3% year over year.

Operating revenues of $3.76 billion surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.75 billion. The top line jumped 23% year over year, with passenger revenues accounting for 90.9% of the top line and increasing 21% due to consistency in air-travel demand.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle. 

Canadian National Railway CNI has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present, and is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 30.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been revised upward by 1.43% at $1.42 per share over the past 60 days. CNI’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters and missed twice, the average miss was 0.1%.

United Parcel Service UPS has an Earnings ESP of +0.64% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. UPS is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Jan. 27. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 2.29% upward over the past 60 days. UPS’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed in the remaining one, the average beat being 11.2%. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research