Tuesday marks one year since President Donald Trump took office for his second presidential term. Here's a look at how three major stock markets have performed since he was inaugurated as the 47th president.
Trump's First Year, Second Term Stock Market & Crypto Returns
Trump promised that the "golden age of America" would begin when he was inaugurated as president on Jan. 20, 2025.
Stock market indexes hit new all-time highs in 2025 during his return to the presidency, and they traded higher one year after he was sworn back into office.
Here are the starting prices, current prices, and returns of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), and SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), which track the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, respectively.
Starting prices are from close on Jan. 17, 2025, and the current price is based on the close on Jan. 16, 2026, as markets were closed on Jan. 20, 2025.
- SPY: Start $597.58, Now $691.66, +15.7%
- QQQ: Start $521.74, Now $621.06, +19.0%
- DIA: Start $434.72, Now $493.42, +13.5%
The winner during Trump's first year of his second term was the Nasdaq 100 with a gain of 19%. This comes with all seven of the Magnificent 7 stocks having a positive return in 2025, led by Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL), which was up 65.2%.
Ranking second was the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which was up 15.7%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ranked third, despite a large portion of the 30 components having positive returns in 2025. Twenty-three of the 30 stocks were up in 2025, more than the 18 and 19 in 2024 and 2023, respectively.
Along with promising an America First agenda and the golden age, Trump was also viewed as the cryptocurrency president, with the prices of major cryptocurrencies trading higher after he won the 2024 election.
Here's a look at how Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) traded during Trump's first year of his second term, based on the opening price on Jan. 20, 2025, and the price at 9:30 a.m. ET on Jan. 20, 2026.
BTC: Start $101,083.75, Now $90,888.04, -10.1%
Bitcoin is down 10% since Trump took office, underperforming major stock market indexes. This may come as a surprise for investors, given Trump's pro-crypto stance and calls to establish a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and to pass other cryptocurrency legislation.
What's Next For Stock Markets, Cryptocurrency?
The S&P 500 was up around 70% during Trump's first four years in office during his first presidential term. For a similar return, markets will need to trade higher in his next three years. Here's a look at the SPY returns by year during his first presidential term:
- 2017: +21.7%
- 2018: -4.6%
- 2019: +31.2%
- 2020: +18.4%
The 16.6% gain for the SPY in 2025 marked the second-lowest return during a year that Trump was in the presidency for the majority of the year.
Investors may want to take note that the second year of Trump's first term and the second year of President Joe Biden's term (2022: -18.2%), saw negative returns and the worst returns during each of their respective four-year terms. The market dropped in 2018 due to tariff uncertainty, tech stock valuation concerns and several other reasons. In 2022, markets crashed due to the lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, soaring inflation and higher interest rates.
During 2025, Trump often used the stock market returns and record valuations as a gauge of economic health. Voters disagreed with him as they struggled with inflation and rising grocery and health care costs.
After a strong 2025 for stock markets, investors and analysts will want to see more strong returns in 2026. The second-year downtrends for both Trump and Biden in recent memory could mark reasons for caution.
Uncertainty over tariffs, interest rates and geopolitical tension could see the stock market take a breather in 2026.
For cryptocurrency, volatility and fewer records for the stock market could end up being good news. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin can trade higher during times of political uncertainty and geopolitical tension.
While Bitcoin is down 10% during Trump's first year of his second term, the leading cryptocurrency has set multiple all-time highs since the president was re-elected and during his first term.
Image via Shutterstock/ Joey Sussman
