LyondellBasell to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. LYB is set to release fourth-quarter 2025 results before the opening bell on Jan. 30.

LyondellBasell beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in one of the trailing four quarters, missed it twice and matched on the other occasion. It delivered a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of around 2.7%, on average. The company is expected to have faced headwinds from year-end seasonality, reduced operating rates and higher feedstock costs in the fourth quarter. 

LYB's shares are down 35.6% in the past year compared with the Zacks Chemicals Diversified industry’s 20.7% decline.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Do LYB’s Revenue Estimates Say?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter consolidated revenues for LYB is currently pegged at $6,984.4 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 26.5%.

For the Olefins and Polyolefins – Americas division, the consensus estimate stands at $2,536 million, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 7.9%. The same for the Olefins and Polyolefins – Europe, Asia & International division is pegged at $2,378 million, implying a 3.8% decrease from last year’s tally.

For LYB’s Advanced Polymer Solutions segment, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is $837 million, suggesting a 1.5% rise year over year.

The consensus estimate for the Intermediaries and Derivatives segment’s revenues is pinned at $2,203 million, suggesting a 6.5% decrease from the year-ago reported figure.

The same for the Technology segment's revenues is pegged at $137 million, indicating a 21.3% fall from a year ago.

Factors at Play for LYB Stock

LyondellBasell’s fourth-quarter results are likely to have been negatively impacted by lower operating rates and seasonal factors. To align production with global demand and planned maintenance activities, LyondellBasell expects to operate its North American olefins and polyolefins (O&P) assets at 80% capacity, European O&P facilities at 60%, and Intermediates & Derivatives assets at 75% in the fourth quarter. 

LYB, in its third-quarter call, said that it intends to idle one of its PO/SM units in Channelview and one of its crackers in Germany in the fourth quarter. Turnarounds are likely to have impacted its production volumes and margins.

Year-end seasonality, softer demand and customer inventory reductions are expected to have weighed on volumes in the Olefins and Polyolefins – Americas unit. Industrial and consumer demand is also expected to have remained weak in Europe in the December quarter. 

The company is expected to have faced headwinds from higher natural gas and feedstock, which are likely to have exerted pressure on margins in North America. Higher feedstock costs are also likely to have weighed on margins in the European O&P business. 

The Advanced Polymer Solutions segment remains hamstrung by lower demand in the automotive sector due to lower production globally. Softness in automotive is expected to continue to have impacted this segment in the quarter to be reported. LYB’s cost reduction initiatives are expected to have partly offset these headwinds, supporting margins.

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Price and EPS Surprise

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. price-eps-surprise | LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Quote

What Our Model Unveils for LYB Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for LyondellBasell this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for LYB is +1.85%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 18 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: LYB currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM, scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 12, has an Earnings ESP of +21.23% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for AEM’s earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at $2.19.

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, slated to release earnings on Feb. 18, has an Earnings ESP of +3.72%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KGC's earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 56 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. 

Newmont Corporation NEM, scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 19, has an Earnings ESP of +12.83% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The consensus mark for NEM’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.81.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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