ArcelorMittal's Q4 Earnings Surpass Estimates Amid Lower Shipments

ArcelorMittal S.A. MT recorded a fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $177 million or 23 cents per share. This compares favorably with a loss of $390 million or 51 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, the company recorded adjusted earnings of 86 cents per share. The bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 56 cents. 

Total sales were up around 2% year over year to $14,971 million in the quarter. The figure missed the consensus estimate of $15,760.7 million. 

Total steel shipments fell 4% year over year to 13 million metric tons in the reported quarter. The figure lagged the consensus estimate of 14.5 million metric tons. 

ArcelorMittal Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

ArcelorMittal price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | ArcelorMittal Quote

MT’s Segment Highlights

North America: Sales were up 16% year over year to $3,045 million in the reported quarter. Crude steel production fell 4.2% to 1,804 million metric tons. Steel shipments rose around 4.3% year over year to 2,494 million metric tons, lower than the consensus estimate of 2,505 million metric tons. The average steel selling price rose 18% to $1,052 per ton. 

Brazil: Sales were up 0.4% year over year to $2,901 million. Crude steel production rose 3.1% to 3,636 million metric tons. Shipments increased 8.2% year over year to 3,763 million metric tons, surpassing the consensus estimate of 3,542 million metric tons. Average steel selling prices fell 10.4% to $692 per ton. 

Europe: Sales declined around 6% year over year to $6,736 million. Crude steel production declined nearly 17% to 6,398 million metric tons in the reported quarter. Shipments declined around 9% year over year to 6,574 million metric tons, missing the consensus mark of 7,411 million metric tons. The average steel selling price increased around 6.3% year over year to $906 per ton. 

Mining: Sales rose 29% year over year to $908 million. Iron ore production totaled 10.1 million metric tons, up around 13.5% from the year-ago quarter’s levels. Iron ore shipments were up 33% year over year to 10.1 million metric tons. 

MT’s Financials

At the end of the reported quarter, cash and cash equivalents were $5,476 million compared with $5,733 million in the prior quarter. The company’s net debt was around $7.9 billion. 

MT’s Outlook

Per MT, global steel demand excluding China is expected to improve in 2026, with apparent steel consumption projected to grow around 2% year over year, supporting higher production and shipment volumes across all regions compared with 2025. Growth will be aided by operational improvements and the continued benefit of trade protections, particularly in Europe, where domestic mills are expected to progressively regain market share from imports as CBAM implementation and the strengthened TRQ mechanism take effect through the year.  

To capitalize on medium- and long-term structural demand drivers, including the energy transition, infrastructure development, mobility systems, defense security and expanding data-center capacity, the company plans to invest $4.5–$5.0 billion in capex during 2026 to enhance capacity, efficiency and growth initiatives. 

MT’s Price Performance

ArcelorMittal’s shares have gained 105.6% in the past year against the industry’s 58.7% fall. 

MT’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

MT currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). 

Better-ranked stocks worth a look in the basic materials space include New Gold, Inc. NGD, Centerra Gold, Inc. CGAU and Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. ASM 

New Gold is expected to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 18. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 27 cents. NGD beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 41.4%. NGD carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

Centerra Gold is slated to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 19. The consensus estimate for Centerra’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 33 cents. Centerra, carrying a Zacks Rank #1, beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 22%. 

Avino Silver is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Mar. 11. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASM’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 6 cents. ASM beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 150%. ASM currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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