UPST Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Upstart Holdings UPST is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 10, after the closing bell. Its quarterly results are likely to reflect growth in revenues and earnings per share.

In the last reported quarter, this fintech company, which provides an AI lending platform, came up with an adjusted net income per share of 52 cents, delivering a surprise of 23.81%, reflecting top-line growth.

Upstart has a solid surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. The graph below depicts the surprise history of the company:

Upstart Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Upstart Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Upstart Holdings, Inc. Quote

UPST: Factors at Play

As Upstart approaches its fourth-quarter earnings, investors are focused on whether the company can translate strong borrower interest into higher funded volumes without losing its grip on credit quality. The September quarter highlighted a familiar tension. Applications surged to the highest level in more than three years, but originations lagged as the company’s AI models reacted conservatively to short-term macro signals. The fourth quarter will help clarify whether that caution was temporary and if improving indicators allow approvals and conversion rates to rebound.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, management has guided revenues of about $288 million, which would mark sequential growth despite normal holiday seasonality. This outlook reflects confidence that demand fundamentals remain intact and that funding availability is no longer a binding constraint. Fee revenues are expected to reach roughly $262 million, while net interest income is projected at around $26 million, supported by strong returns on loans held on the balance sheet. For the fourth quarter, management expected adjusted EBITDA of approximately $63 million, GAAP net income of about $17 million and adjusted net income of around $52 million. 

Profitability metrics will also be closely watched. Contribution margin is expected to moderate to around 53%, representing a step down from the third-quarter levels. Upstart is expected to have started reinvesting more aggressively to support future growth and repeat borrowing, signaling a shift toward optimizing customer lifetime value rather than maximizing near-term margins.

Funding momentum remains a key support. The $1.5 billion forward-flow agreement with Castlelake and continued additions of bank and credit union partners have expanded Upstart’s lending capacity. These arrangements should help the company gradually reduce balance sheet exposure while scaling originations across products. Beyond personal loans, the fourth quarter may highlight progress in newer verticals. Auto and home loans continued to grow rapidly in the third quarter, and partnerships, including Tech CU, suggest these businesses are moving closer to meaningful contributors to overall volume and revenues.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $288.47 million, indicating an increase of 31.74% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. Estimates have remained unchanged over the past 60 days for UPST, and the consensus mark for earnings stands at 47 cents per share, calling for a rise of 80.77% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

For full-year 2025, management projected total revenues of about $1.035 billion, driven largely by fee revenues of roughly $946 million, alongside net interest income of approximately $89 million. The company anticipates ending the year with GAAP net income near $50 million while maintaining an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 22%, reflecting a return to sustainable profitability as scale improves.

For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for UPST’s revenues is pegged at $1.04 billion, implying a jump of 62.77% year over year. The consensus mark for full-year EPS stands at $1.68, suggesting a substantial increase from a loss of 20 cents in the year-ago period.

Here Is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for UPST:

Our proprietary model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Upstart this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. 

Upstart has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are two stocks from the REIT sector — Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT and Realty Income O — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.

Federal Realty, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 12, has an Earnings ESP of +0.90% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Realty Income, slated to release quarterly numbers on Feb. 24, has an Earnings ESP of +0.99% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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